Dynasty 0

Dynasty Players to Consider Selling High Part 2

With the fantasy season over now is the time of NFL draft research and dynasty trades. After looking back at 2018 and putting in research on the numbers I came up with a list of players I recommend exploring selling this off season. I am focusing on impactful fantasy players who I believe are at a high point in value after the 2018 season.

This includes some big fantasy names, I am not saying they will be bad next season, I believe the potential return is worth exploring. I am not looking to get rid of any of these players, but believe the right move could be very beneficial.

Damien Williams

Williams probably helped plenty of people win their leagues this year. He took advantage of the Kareem Hunt situation and Spencer Ware being injured. The biggest concern for me is looking at the rest of his career Williams doesn’t appear to be that talented.

He has never averaged over 4 yards a carry in any previous season and before this season his career yards per carry was 3.6. This season there was only 1 target he didn’t catch out of 24, for his career he has been a solid pass catcher, but more in the 75% catch range. He is not going to bring in over 90% of his targets over a full season. He has been in the league for 5 years now, I don’t think he suddenly becomes a more talented player this year.

The truth is the value is the role and not the player. There is no guarantee that Williams will hold onto this role for long. The Chiefs did give him a contract extension, but I don’t think that gives him a stranglehold on the job. Even if he keeps the job for 2019 he is most likely not a long term starter in Kansas City. I would be looking to slip him for something that has more potential long term value.

Derrick Henry

This is the most obviously sell high to me, which may mean finding the right trade partner will be difficult. However, you only need to find 1 owner that believes the stretch at the end of the season is the real Derrick Henry.

In 2 games Henry had 38.5% of his yardage for the season, in the other 14 games he averaged 46.5 yards a game and had 6 TDs. He is not a reliable option and it is not just a matter of volume. He had double-digit carries in 9 of those 14 games. It is not like he is in a great situation on a dynamic offense either.

Basically, if you buy into Henry as a high-value fantasy player you are choosing to believe 2 great games over 45 games of mediocre play. His history shows he is not much more than a flex play where you are hoping for a TD when you start him. If anyone is willing to pay RB2 value for Henry I will be happy to move him.

Do not be fooled by the highlights from 2 games, he was on waivers in multiple leagues I am in when he had the explosion in week 14 and for good reason.

Keenan Allen

A lot of Allen’s value is derived from the volume he receives as the top option for Philip Rivers. My concern comes from the expectation that his volume will come down moving forward. His target share in 2018 was 26.9% and in 2017 it was 27.9%. Those are great numbers, but is it reasonable to expect them to continue? In 2018 Mike Williams emerged has as a weapon and he will likely demand more targets in 2019. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for over 9 targets a game in 2018, they should continue to be used effectively in the passing game moving forward.

The other big change from 2018 to 2019 is the return of Hunter Henry. In 2017 Henry and Antonio Gates combined for 114 targets, close to 20% of the team’s pass attempts. In 2018 Gates and Virgil Green combined for 72 targets and around 14% of the team’s targets. Henry is going to make the tight end position a bigger part of the Charger offense again in 2019. When that is combined with involving Williams more and the RB utilization in the passing game, it is hard to see Allen staying at such a larger target share.

Allen also does not have the touchdowns to offset a dip in volume. He had 6 TDs in each of the last 2 seasons. With Henry and Williams will both serve as bigger targets in the redzone. Gordon will continue to score TDs, it is hard to imagine a big uptick in Allen’s TDs.

Another threat to his target volume is the decrease in passing volume overall from the Chargers in 2018. They had their best season since 2009 and Rivers has his lowest passing attempts since 2009 as well with 508. From 2010 to 2017 Rivers averaged around 572 pass attempts a season and in that time frame the Chargers never won more than 9 games.

The Chargers have some good players on defense and a great running back in Melvin Gordon, which means they would be smart to keep Rivers closer to 500 attempts if possible. Less attempts combined with my expectation that his target share decreases and Allen is more of a WR2 moving forward for me, but I believe it will be possible to move him for WR1 value this offseason.

With the fantasy season over now is the time of NFL draft research and dynasty trades. After looking back at 2018 and putting in research on the numbers I came […]

Dynasty 0

Selling Studs High: Dynasty Values to Capitalize on Now

With the fantasy season over, now is the time of NFL draft research and dynasty trades. After looking back at 2018 and putting in research on the numbers, I came up with a list of players I recommend exploring selling this off season.

I am focusing on impactful fantasy players who I believe are at a high point in value after the 2018 season. This includes some big fantasy names, and I am not saying they will be bad next season- but I believe the potential return is worth exploring.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Mahomes is coming off an amazing season and it is hard to imagine his value ever being higher in dynasty than it is right now. People are probably hesitant to trade him, but I would at least see what offers I could get, especially in superflex leagues where he will demand a huge haul.

History tells us the numbers for Mahomes will come down after this season; in fact it is possible that this past season was his best ever. He threw for 50 TDs putting him in a tie with Tom Brady for the 2nd most ever in a season. Mahomes had a TD rate of 8.6% this year, in the season where Manning threw for 55 TDs he had a TD rate of 8.3%, the following season he dropped to 6.5%. Manning’s career TD rate is 5.7%.

Last year Deshaun Watson had a TD rate of 9.3% in 7 games, this year it dropped to 5.1%. Going back ever further Dan Marino threw for 48 TDs in 1984 with a TD rate of 8.5%, in 1986 he dropped to 30 TDs with a TD rate of 5.3%.

It is very possible Mahomes finishes as the QB1 again next year, but no player has repeated as the top QB since Dante Culpepper in 2004. Even if he manages to break that trend-his TD rate is unsustainable, which means even if he does it again the gap between Mahomes and the rest of the top fantasy QBs will not be nearly as large.

Aaron Rodgers has the highest career TD rate of anyone who has played after 1975 and that is 6.2%. Mahomes had 580 pass attempts this season, if his TD rate drops to 6.2% he would have thrown for 36 TDs, which is 56 less fantasy points for him on the year. If he drops to 5.5% his TD total would be 32, a difference of 72 points on the season. If you are going to move Mahomes this offseason is the time.

Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings

This one hurts a little bit since I am such a big Thielen fan, but the way he was used over the 2nd half of the season is concerning. The Vikings and Mike Zimmer seem to want to run the ball and play defense more, which makes me worried that 2nd half usage will continue. He will still be a valuable player for fantasy, but once people have some distance from the season a lot of people will only look at his full season numbers and it is possible you can get someone to overpay for Thielen.

When breaking the season into 2 halves Thielen looks like a completely different player. Over the 1st 8 games he was over 100 yards every game, he caught 6 TDs and was far and away the WR1 in PPR with 202 points. Over the next 8 games he had 105.3 PPR points and was the WR25. He had fewer points per game than Zay Jones, Robbie Anderson and Robert Foster. Not exactly fantasy stars.

Some of the difference could be attributed to regression, his 1st half numbers put him on pace for one of the best seasons in NFL history. However a lot of the decline in production was usage related. Over the 1st half of the season he averaged 12 targets per game, over the 2nd half of the season he averaged just over 7 targets per game. The shift in volume is scary to see for a WR who derives a lot of his value from volume in PPR. The truth is as a player he is most likely somewhere between the 2 extremes of last season, but if he can be sold as a top end WR this off season it would be hard to resist.

Eric Ebron, TE, Lions

Ebron is coming of a career season in pretty much every way. He reached career highs in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. His touchdown numbers are what stand out the most; he caught 13 in 2018 in 16 games. Over the rest of his career he had 11 in in 37 games. Moving to Andrew Luck was an upgrade at QB, but expecting him to continue his pace from 2018 is unrealistic. The tight end position is one of the weakest in fantasy, which means someone is likely to over pay for what they see as a top 5 tight end.

The other thing that concerns me is a healthy Jack Doyle. Doyle was not healthy most of 2018, but 5 of the 6 games Doyle was on the field his snap count percentage never dropped below 73%, with 2 games over 90%. In those 5 games Ebron’s highest snap count was 45.1% and 2 games were below 30%. The Colts still like Jack Doyle and if he is healthy they will use him. He is a more reliable option in the passing game, his lowest career catch rate is 71.4% in his rookie year, Ebron’s career best season was 71.8%. Ebron has also had issues in the past with drops. The combination of touchdown regression and less time on the field with a healthy Doyle means Ebron’s fantasy numbers will come back to earth.

Phillip Lindsay, RB, Broncos

Lindsay was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. Some early dynasty rankings I have looked at show Lindsay as a top 12 RB. This is higher than I value him, which means I expect to be able to trade him for a solid return. The first issue is the situation in Denver is not ideal, Case Keenum is temporary and the team will likely continue to search for their QB of the future. That uncertainty is not ideal for a long term asset.

Another big factor is Royce Freeman. Coming into the season he was the more hyped player after being drafted in the 3rd round. Both backs were used in the offense and it would be a surprise to see the Broncos give up on a talented player like Freeman already. The size of the two players is also a concern; Freeman is 4 inches taller and almost 40 lbs heavier. He is much better suited to get goal line work, which means more chances to get into the end zone.

Lindsay’s out of nowhere performance is also tough to view as reliable. I would be slightly wary of him being a 1 year success story. In this case I prefer to make a move while his value his high to mitigate the potential risk of a downturn in production. Considering Lindsay was likely a waiver wire add, turning him into something of value in a trade is a big win.

With the fantasy season over, now is the time of NFL draft research and dynasty trades. After looking back at 2018 and putting in research on the numbers, I came […]

Featured 0

Week 16 QB Streaming Options

Last Week’s Results: Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem like he had a great game when you look at this total fantasy points of 18.74, but week 15 was a weird week with a lot of disappointments and he actually finished as the 10th QB on the week. He ended up being a good play even though he didn’t break 20 fantasy points on the week.

Championship week is here. It is crazy to think the fantasy season is coming to end. The season has flown by, but here we are. If you were lucky enough to survive the crazy fantasy week that was week 15, it is time to go for the title. These streamers don’t only apply to people playing for the championship, if you have consolation bracket prize or a prize for 3rd place these can help you as well.

Main Streaming Option: Josh Allen

Josh Allen did not produce on the ground at the same level has he had in previous weeks, but he still ran for a TD against Detroit. I am not concerned about the low rushing total because the Lions actually give up the least rushing yards to QBs this year. The Patriots give up the 10th most yards to QBs so Allen should produce on the ground again this week. The productions on the ground for Allen is real, he is 2nd amongst all QBs in rushing yards and leads all QBs with 6 rushing TDs. Allen still has not shown he is good at throwing the ball, but for fantasy that isn’t important. Rushing yards are still more valuable than passing yards. The Patriots have one of the best CBs in the league this year, but it is not like there is a WR on Buffalo he needs to shut down. If it forces Allen to run more that is good, since he is better at running than passing.

Alternate 1: Sam Darnold

Darnold looked good against Houston, he was getting the ball to Robbie Anderson more which is nice to see. He kept the Jets competitive against Houston who is playing for a bye and this week he faces Green Bay that literally has nothing to play for. The Jets are playing at home in a game with a decent over/under of 47. The Packers are favored, but I honestly like the Jets in this game. They pushed Houston and I think they are going to win this week. If they win that means Darnold is going to have to produce. Since coming back from his injury he has completed just fewer than 65% of his passes and has 3 TDs to 1 INT. It is small sample size, but Darnold is again showing the potential that got him drafted at 3 overall. Darnold will be looking to finish the season on a high note and it is the best time for the Jets to open it up and see what he can do at this point.

Alternate 2: Lamar Jackson

I did not intend to make this an all-rookie edition, but the value Jackson has rushing the ball is too hard to ignore. There aren’t a lot of options available in over 50% of leagues I will feel comfortable starting. I mentioned Josh Allen’s rushing earlier; Jackson is the QB that has more rushing yards than him. He leads all QBs in rushing yards, over the last 5 games his lowest rushing total was 67 yards. We saw Jackson be successful in a game against the Chiefs a few weeks ago, so I expect him to be able to produce as the Ravens go to play the Chargers. It is a game they are expected to win against a powerful offense and they need Jackson to perform to stay in the game.

Those are the available QBs I like for championship week. Some people may not like to stream such an important game, but you might not have a choice. Maybe you had Cam Newton or you are scared to put Jared Goff back out there. Good luck to everyone going for a title this week. Hopefully my streaming advice helped you get there this season.

Last Week’s Results: Lamar Jackson doesn’t seem like he had a great game when you look at this total fantasy points of 18.74, but week 15 was a weird week […]

Fantasy Football 0

Week 15 QB Streaming Options


Is your league missing sweet silverware for your champion? Save 10% on ALL merchandise from Fantasy Champs with promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: Josh Allen came through on the ground once again this week rushing for 101 yards and a TD. Overall his fantasy week was decent because of this, but was hurt because of his lack of production passing. The turnovers hurt him as he threw 2 interceptions and 0 TDs. If he had been able to produce anything in the passing game he would have been a top 10 play, instead he finished with 18.34 fantasy points for a respectable week. Let us jump into the streaming options this week as we get deeper into the fantasy playoffs.

Main Streaming Option: Lamar Jackson

To be honest I am surprised he is still owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. Last week he has another good fantasy outing rushing for over 60 yards for the 4th straight game. He even threw 2 TDs, even though it was only on 147 yards it was nice to see him produce for fantasy in the passing game. This week the Ravens are a 7.5 point favorite at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa continues to be a positive match up for fantasy QBs and Jackson should be able to exploit this. The biggest risk with Jackson is his play style knocking him out of the game; he has to come out last week against the Chiefs. Flacco is healthy but the Ravens appear to be moving on to their QB of the future and will continue to start Jackson. He is 3-1 with his only loss coming against the Chiefs in overtime so it is the right call. I would not be surprised to see him on championship teams this year.

Alternate 1: Derek Carr

I keep finding myself look at Carr as a potential streamer each week. He has had a run of positive matchups and has been able to exploit them for solid fantasy results. This week he has another positive match up against the Cincinnati Bengals. He has thrown multiple touchdowns the last 2 weeks against teams giving up points to QBs and the Bengals have been worse against QB in fantasy than every team but Atlanta. Carr has only thrown the ball less than 30 times twice the whole season, there is no reason to expect that to change this week. The opportunity is there with the volume for Carr and the matchup is the best one he has faced all season. The Raiders might be a mess of a team right now and are trying to figure out where they will play their home games next season, but Carr is just good enough to succeed for fantasy in a situation like this.

Alternate 2: Josh Johnson

This is a game I have no interest in watching. I do not even think Johnson is a good QB. This is going to be ugly and Johnson is really a Hail Mary play in a 2 QB league where you lost Carson Wentz. There are not a lot of QBs under the 50% threshold at this point. His entire value is based on his ability to run the ball, he showed it last week taking over for Sanchez and finishing as the QB6 on the week in about half a game. He ran 11 times and scored a TD and he seems like he will rely on his legs. This is going to be the ugliest QB match up of the season as he faces off against Cody Kessler. Johnson is another example that running QBs have more value in fantasy, even if they aren’t any good. Josh Allen is available an actually a safe option at this point, but I wanted to highlight Johnson for extreme cases. I am in a 18 team dynasty league so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him swing a matchup in a league like that.

These are the names I am looking at for the fantasy playoffs. The first 2 are pretty safe options given their great match ups and the last is a giant risk that could pay off for anyone having the courage, or more likely the desperation, to play him. Good look in the semi-finals this week (I am assuming if you are reading this you are not playing your championship week 17 because gross.).


Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: Josh Allen came through on the ground once again this week rushing for 101 yards and a TD. Overall his fantasy week was decent because of this, […]

Fantasy Football 0

Week 14 QB Streaming Options


Is your league missing sweet silverware for your champion? Save 10% on ALL merchandise from Fantasy Champs with promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: Lamar Jackson was able to rush for a TD in a game the Ravens won, but he was also knocked out of the game for a period of time which limited his potential upside. He did return to the game and finished with 16.5 fantasy points, so overall it was an alright performance. He didn’t hurt your team like Drew Brees or Andrew Luck did, but was right in the middle of the road. That brings the season average for my streaming option to 23.1 fantasy points per week.

In most leagues this is the start of the fantasy playoffs, so all decisions matter even more now. There are not as many options available in at least 50% of leagues, likely because people are more likely to hold a QB with a positive playoff match up, but there is always value available so let’s dive into the guys I like this week.

Main Streaming Option: Josh Allen

Since returning from injury Josh Allen has been doing a lot more on the ground. He ran for 99 yards and a TD 2 weeks ago and 135 yards last week, so he is giving a very nice baseline for fantasy players. This week he is facing the Jets defense at home that gave up over 200 yards and 2 TDs to Matt Barkley last time these teams played. The idea of playing Josh Allen in the fantasy playoffs is pretty scary; he is a very high variance play. He is the type of player I would suggest if you are a team that snuck into the playoff and are a big underdog in your match up. If you need to plug in someone safe look at the other 2 options, Josh Allen could be the number 1 QB this week and he could give you negative points. I am not even certain he is any good at real football, but I do believe the Bills could find themselves in a lot of positive game scripts because of their defense and the fact that they are facing the Jets. It looks like Darnold will be back and he leads the NFL in interceptions even though he has only plays in 9 games.. His overall numbers are not pretty, but if there is a week to put Allen in this is it.

Alternate 1: Lamar Jackson

If you want safer production Jackson is the way to go, his floor is much higher than fellow rookie Josh Allen. One major difference is Allen has shown he is at least capable of throwing for 200 yards. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out with big clash of styles versus the Chiefs. Baltimore will try to slow them and this game down, but if they are forced to play from behind how much will they open things up with Jackson? He has more upside with this potentially high scoring match up. This is the game with the 2nd highest over/under of the week at 53, so the expectation is the game script will go more towards the Chiefs. This is a big moment for Jackson as the Ravens might get a glimpse of their future. This is the biggest challenge of Jackson’s young career and if he comes through like he did so often in college he could be in for a big day. Baltimore is trying to hold on to the 6th seed in the playoffs, so they need to pull out all the stops against the Chiefs.

Alternate 2: Derek Carr

Carr was in this same spot for me last week and he came through in a big way against the Chiefs. The game was high scoring as expected; the surprise was that the Raiders were still competing in the 4th quarter. Carr has had some boom or bust in him this season, with 3 games over 30 fantasy points and 4 games under 10. Similar to last week the Raiders are unlikely to stop the Steelers’ offense which means they need to score to compete. The Raiders are 22nd in rushing yards this season so it is unlikely they are able to rely on their ground attack, I mean they just signed CJ Anderson so that tells you what you need to know about their rushing game. Carr has attempted the 10th most pass attempts this season, he might not be efficient but the volume is there for him to have another useful fantasy day.

Good luck in the playoffs, I will be back next week with recommendations for week 15 for those of you who are still going for the championship.


Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: Lamar Jackson was able to rush for a TD in a game the Ravens won, but he was also knocked out of the game for a period […]

Fantasy Football 0

QB Streaming Options for Week 13


Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: My main streaming option of Jameis Winston came through for anyone who played him. He finished with 312 yards and 2 TDs for 26.88 fantasy points. This choice brings the weekly average points for my main option up to 23.66 fantasy points per week. That is all production that could have been achieved without spending any significant draft capital on a QB. If you build the rest of your team depth correctly you can stream your way to the playoffs and a potentially a fantasy championship.

The bye weeks are over so there might be less people looking to stream QBs, but you could have a tough match up or be disappointed with the fantasy output of a guy like Tom Brady who plays the Vikings this week. You could need a replacement as Trubisky will be missing another week. In any of those situations here are the guys available it at least 50% of Yahoo leagues that I like for this week.

Main Streaming Option: Lamar Jackson

Over the last few weeks we have likely seen the end of Joe Flacco’s time as the starting QB in Baltimore. Jackson has come in and gotten wins in both of his starts, putting Baltimore in a good position to challenge for a playoff spot. His passing numbers are not necessarily pretty, but his legs provide him with an extremely high floor. Over his 2 starts he has rushed 37 times for 190 yards and a TD. He has put up over 10 fantasy points a game on his rushing alone. This week he is playing at Atlanta who has been terrible on defense, the over/under is not as high as I like for a streamer at 48, but Jackson’s rushing is enough to compensate for that. Atlanta’s struggles against running backs in the passing game should play into the safer passes Baltimore will be calling, it could mean more use of Ty Montgomery for Baltimore. I am looking at leagues with 6 points per passing TD for the purpose of this article, so that hurts Jackson a little, but if you are in a league with 4 points for a passing TD Jackson is an ever stronger streaming candidate.

Alternate 1: Case Keenum

Keenum is widely available, owned in only 19% of leagues as of right now. He has been mostly disappointing for fantasy purposes so far this year, but he is stepping into a great match up. The Bengals on average are allowing over 300 yards and just over 2 passing TDs to opposing QBs. The Bengals lost their QB, do not seem to have as much to play for and it is the type of match up Keenum needs to be able to take advantage of. Denver is coming off of 2 big wins and will need to continue that here to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bengals started the season looking like a potential wild card team and it has gone downhill since week 6. The team does not have much left to play for and it feels like the Dalton injury might be enough to completely break their spirit.

Alternate 2: Derek Carr

Derek Carr was bad against the Ravens’ defense last week. The Raiders do not have a lot of weapons in the passing game at this point, but they are in a game where the game scrip will likely force them to abandon the run. They are a huge underdog against the Chiefs at home in the game with the highest over/under of the week at 55.5. Derek Carr is a volume play for fantasy this week. Teams have attempted the most passes per game against the Chiefs with 42.5 per game. They have allowed 320 yards passing to opposing offenses. The Raiders have been one of the worst teams in football and they do not stand much of a chance of slowing the Chiefs down, by the 2nd half they will be forced to abandon the run and throw on most downs. It might be ugly but the volume will lead to stats and fantasy points for Carr. Carr is owned in only 18% of Yahoo leagues so you can plug him if you need him.

We are heading towards the fantasy playoffs, the most important time of the year. You need to make the right choices or you could miss out. I will be here with recommendations through championship week.


Is your league missing sweet silverware for your champion? Save 10% on ALL merchandise from Fantasy Champs with promo code “Top2”

Last Week’s Result: My main streaming option of Jameis Winston came through for anyone who played him. He finished with 312 yards and 2 TDs for 26.88 fantasy points. This […]