48R 19 RB 0

David Montgomery: 1 of 3 RB1s

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

David Montgomery (5’11”, 216), Iowa State

19.6 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

David Montgomery is currently our 2nd highest rated running back prospect, only behind Rodney Anderson.  The main reason for this is that Montgomery is so well rounded.  Similar to Anderson, Montgomery has all the traits to be a three-down back in the NFL.  The nice thing about Montgomery, unlike most prospects in this year’s class, is that there aren’t any glaring red flags or limitations that could hold him back.

According to 247Sports Composite, Montgomery was 3-star recruit out of Cincinnati, Ohio.  While at Mt. Healthy High School, Montgomery was a dual-threat quarterback, with an emphasis on the “dual”.  In his career, Montgomery totaled over 6,600 rushing yards and 91 rushing touchdowns.  On top of that, he added 2,247 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns.  Montgomery was named to the all-state team three times and was named the Ohio Player of the Year by the AP his senior season.

College Production

Montgomery had some very good production while at ISU.  Now, we have to keep in mind that most of this production came against Big 12 competition, which is notorious for subpar defenses.

Montgomery walked onto campus and started producing right away as a true freshman.  Playing in 12 games, starting the last 4, Montgomery was able to compile 563 yards and 2 touchdowns on 109 carries.  Montgomery also added 13 receptions for 129 yards.  

His sophomore year, Montgomery rushed for 1146 yards and 11 touchdowns, along with 36 receptions for 296 yards.  Finally, in his junior year, Montgomery rushed for 1216 yards for 13 touchdowns and had 22 receptions for 157 yards.  According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Montgomery led the nation in forced missed tackles both his sophomore and junior year.

Montgomery was named a First-Team All-American by PFF and First-Team All-Big 12 by the AP and ESPN both his sophomore and junior year.  The Big 12 coaches named him to the First-Team All-Big 12 his sophomore year and the Second-Team All-Big 12 his junior year.

Speed/Agility: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Montgomery has good speed and great burst.  One of my favorite parts of Montgomery’s game is his ability to find a hole and hit it hard.  Montgomery also has enough speed to get outside of the tackles.  He is very agile, both when maneuvering near the hole and in open space.  Montgomery can change direction with ease, which helps him keep negative plays alive and to turn them into positive plays. 

The only thing going against Montgomery here is that his breakaway speed is capped.  Don’t expect Montgomery to break off many 50+ yard rushes.

Receiving Skills:  Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Montgomery looks very comfortable as a receiver.  In his career, Montgomery had 71 receptions for 582 yards.  As the stats show, Montgomery did the majority of his damage in the flats and on short routes over the middle of the field. Montgomery does a great job of finding space and getting open.  He has decent acceleration after the catch, which provided him opportunities to produce some YAC. 

I just don’t understand why Montgomery wasn’t used more in the passing game.  Although 71 career receptions is a decent number, I feel that he could have done a lot more damage in the passing game if he was given the opportunity.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 5 (Personal Score: 5)

Montgomery’s vision is probably his best asset.  He is a very patient runner that always seems to find the hole.  He displayed a very good jump cut that allows him to fit into small holes quickly.  Montgomery has a great understanding of where his blockers are going to be and does a great job of following them.  As I mentioned in the speed category, when Montgomery finds the hole, he hits it hard.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Montgomery wasn’t asked to do a whole lot of blocking while at ISU.  He was usually used to chip at the LOS and then released to run a route.  However, when he did stay in and was asked to block, he held his ground.  By no means is he a finished product, but Montgomery shows willingness, effort and isn’t a liability out there.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

I was so impressed with Montgomery’s ability to keep the play alive.  He displays a low center of gravity and has a strong base.  He is willing to put his head down and take on defenders.  Montgomery is constantly bouncing off the first tackle and gaining a few yards after contact.  Another thing that I love is that Montgomery is consistently falling forward.  That may seem like a little thing, but when he is gaining a couple yards every other play just from falling forward, those yards start to add up and translate to fantasy points.

Conclusion: Early-Mid 1st Round Target

Due to the top end talent at the wide receiver position, a lot of people are sliding the running backs to the back half of the 1st round.  Personally, I think this is a mistake. Montgomery is a well-rounded prospect that looks ready to produce right away.  

If Montgomery gets a good landing spot, I’d be willing to take him at the 1.02/1.03 range.  Even with just an okay landing spot, the farthest I could see Montgomery slipping for me is 1.07. Remember, running backs are the ones that usually provide a quick return on investment.  So as nice as it would be to take one of the premier WR’s early in the 1st round, you most likely will end up with more production from Montgomery year one.

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate […]

48R 19 TE 1

Irv Smith Jr.: 4 Star Fantasy Football Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Irv Smith Jr (6’3”, 243) Tight End, Alabama

18 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

It is no secret that the tight end position in fantasy football has been a dumpster fire the last few years.  Once you get outside the top 5-7 options, there is minimal upside and even less consistency.  Luckily for us, this 2019 tight end class looks to be a good one! There is some nice top end talent and solid depth that looks to help improve the tight end landscape.

One of the headliners of this class is Alabama TE Irv Smith Jr.  Smith was a 3 star recruit out of New Orleans, Louisiana and played at Brother Martin.  Smith was named ALL-USA Louisiana selection and an All-State honorable mention his senior year.  After receiving offers from Memphis, Texas and Texas A&M, Smith decided to attend Alabama

College Production

After appearing in 9 games as a freshman but not recording any stats, Smith totaled 14 catches for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns his sophomore year. His role and playing time seemed inconsistent through out this season.  This past season as a junior, Smith finally started to break out.  Smith had 44 receptions for 710 yards and 7 touchdowns. Smith now owns the single-season touchdown record at Alabama by a tight end and was named to the All-SEC second team.

Now, I understand that these aren’t eye-popping stats.  However, Alabama has a history of not utilizing their tight ends a ton.  When looking at OJ Howard, who was a 1st round NFL Draft pick in 2017, he only put up 45 receptions for 595 yards and 3 touchdowns his senior year.

Overall, I think Smith showed enough this past season to warrant being one of the top tight ends in this class.  On top of his production, Smith displayed some great skills and traits that should translate to the NFL.  

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

Smith has great speed and acceleration for a tight end.  He does a great job of getting off the line of scrimmage and into his routes quickly.  His ability to accelerate and turn up-field after the catch really stood out.  He is going to make it difficult for NFL defenses to defend him.  He looks to be too fast for most linebackers and too big for most defensive back.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

One thing that all of our writers noted is that Smith does a good job of finding space and getting open.  Now, this may be due to his route running, but it definitely helped that he was surrounded by talent and wasn’t the focal point at Alabama. 

Smith does a good job of running short routes and turning them into 10+ yard gains.  He also displayed the ability to get open on deeper routes that were 15+ yards down field.  Smith displayed a diverse route tree, which should help him translate to the NFL.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 2 (Personal Score: 2)

The other writers and I seemed to agree on blocking being our biggest worry about Smith’s game.  He is a smaller tight end that was very inconsistent with his blocking.  There were instances where he engaged well to create a hole and instances of getting stood straight up or missing defenders.  I think he has the tools to improve but I honestly don’t think he will be asked to do much blocking in the NFL.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Smith is a very good pass catcher with reliable hands.  He showed instances of using good handwork at the line of scrimmage to get open.  I would have liked to see him in more contested catch scenarios, but as I mentioned earlier, he was often open with little pressure.  Smith does a great job of finding open space and putting himself in position to catch the ball and get yardage after the catch.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

Smith is a great athlete that has a ton of upside after the catch.  He combines his strength with the ability to juke defenders and make very nice cuts in the open field.  This combination makes him very difficult to take down.  He is capable of having huge plays, similar to what we saw out of George Kittle this past season.

Conclusion: 2nd round target

I am so excited to see Smith in the NFL.  Like most rookie tight ends, Smith may not make a huge impact right away.  However, Smith has some of the same skills and traits that have helped players like Evan Engram and George Kittle become significant producers in their first two seasons. I’d be extremely comfortable taking Smith anywhere in the second round, unless he lands in Kansas City or Philadelphia for some reason.  Smith is an extremely talented player that has the upside to become a great fantasy asset.

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate […]

Uncategorized 3

Kelvin Harmon, the 1.01? 4 Star Fantasy Football Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Kelvin Harmon (6’2, 215), Wide Receiver, NC State

20.3 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

As it currently stands, Kelvin Harmon is the Fantasy Fanalysts’ highest rated receiver, based on his film.  Now, we are still early in the process and have quite a few guys to still look at, but it’s a near guarantee that Harmon is going to be a consensus top 5 receiver for us.  Harmon is a polished player that doesn’t have any huge weaknesses and has the ability to be a true WR 1 in the NFL.

According to 247 Composite, Harmon was a 3-star recruit out of Palmyra, NJ. While at Palmyra High, Harmon had 165 receptions for 2,764 and 36 touchdowns.  Harmon also played safety at Palmyra and recorded 38 tackles, 2 sacks and an INT his senior year.  During his senior year, Harmon was named to the all-state, all-county team and was the Burlington County Player of the Year.  Harmon was rated as the 88th WR in his class and chose N.C. State over Miami, South Carolina and Boston College.

College Production

After his freshman year, where he had 27 catches for 462 yards and 5 touchdowns, Harmon finished his career at N.C. State with back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.  During his sophomore season, Harmon had 69 receptions for 1,017 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although the touchdowns weren’t there, Harmon was named to the All-ACC Second Team. As a junior (2018), Harmon had 81 receptions, 1,186 yards and 7 touchdowns, which earned him All-ACC First Team honors.

The major thing that sticks out to me is the lack luster touchdown totals.  However, when looking at the team stats, N.C. State had a lot of talent at the running back position and usually decided to run the ball for touchdowns. 

During Harmon’s sophomore year, Jaylen Samuels and Nyheim Hines, both of whom are in the NFL, combined for 28 total touchdowns.  Than this past season, Harmon finished 2nd on the team for touchdowns behind Reggie Gallaspy, who had 19 total touchdowns (18 rushing). 

I believe that Harmon has the ability to produce in the Red Zone, he just didn’t really have the opportunity while at N.C. State.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Harmon displays decent speed for a player his size. The thing that really helps him, though, is that he reaches his top speed very quickly.  He showed the capability to burn past corners on fly routes at the college level, but I am not sure that this will translate to the NFL level when playing against corners with better technique and overall skill.  Harmon also displays good speed on shorter routes, which helps him create separation.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

Because Harmon doesn’t have a ton of top end speed, he really relies on his route running to help create separation.  Harmon displays great footwork, including a nice stutter step that caused multiple corners to look absolutely silly!

Harmon does a good job operating near the sideline and coming back to the ball.  He displayed a diverse route tree, especially in the short/intermediate range.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

I completely understand why you may not be interested in Harmon’s blocking ability, considering it won’t earn you any fantasy points.  However, the fact that Harmon is a very capable blocker will allow him to be on the field on any down, distance or situation in the NFL. 

Harmon does a good job of finding a defender and engaging with them.  He also showed the ability to get downfield and block an open man.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

Harmon displays great handwork and body positioning throughout his routes.  Whenever the ball is thrown to him, he seems to have his body in position to make the catch.  Harmon also does a great job of using hands to create space on a consistent basis. 

One of our writers that also graded Harmon said that his handwork reminds him of Deandre Hopkins, which is an incredibly high praise.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Harmon does a great job of high pointing the ball to grab 50/50 balls. He displays good balance and footwork, especially along the sideline. The biggest knock I have on Harmon is that he displayed very little run after the catch ability. 

He seemed to catch the ball and end up on the ground within 5 yards on almost all of his routes.  Considering he has the tools to produce after the catch, it will be interesting to see if he can develop this skill at the NFL level.

Conclusion: Early/Mid 1st round target

Harmon displays all of the traits and tools to be a true #1 wide receiver in the NFL.  But just like we have been saying all off-season, landing spot is really going to affect where these players get drafted.  If he ends up in a great landing spot, I think there is a legitimate argument for Harmon being taken with the 1.01.  Even if he gets a landing spot that doesn’t seem great, the farthest he should fall is the mid 1st round.

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate […]

48R 19 WR 2

JJ Arcega-Whiteside: 3 Star Fantasy Football Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside (6’3”, 225) Wide Receiver, Stanford

15 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect) 

In case this is your first time reading about the 2019 rookie class, the strength of this class, for fantasy football purposes, is wide receiver.  Not only does this class have headliner studs such as N’keal Harry, but there is quite a bit of depth at the position with guys such as JJ Arcega-Whiteside.  After having a great senior season at Stanford, Arcega-Whiteside looks ready to take the next step to the NFL.

Arcega-Whiteside was a 3-star college prospect out of Roebuck, South Carolina; He set school records at Dorman High School with 207 receptions, 3,779 receiving yards and 38 touchdowns.  Along with being named to the all-state team twice for football, Arcega-Whiteside was named to the all-state team his senior year for basketball and track and field.  Arcega-Whiteside received offers from quite a few D-1 programs, including Michigan State, University of Central Florida and Virginia.  He ultimately decided to attend Stanford University.

College Production

One of the most promising things about Arcega-Whiteside is that in each season at Stanford, he saw a large increase in his production.  After not seeing the field his freshman year, Arcega-Whiteside had 24 receptions for 379 yards and 5 touchdowns his sophomore season.  During his junior season, he nearly doubled those stats with 48 receptions for 781 yards and 9 touchdowns.  Finally, during his senior year, Arcega-Whiteside had his best season at Stanford with 63 receptions for 1059 yards and 14 touchdowns.  His season was highlighted by a 6 reception, 226 yards and 3 touchdown performance against San Diego State.  Arcega-Whiteside was named to the All-Pac-12 second team and was a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist.

Arcega-Whiteside’s 14 touchdowns had him tied for third in all of FBS, only behind John Ursua (16) and David Sills V (15).  Producing in the Red Zone is one of Arcega-Whiteside’s biggest strengths and this is where he is going to have to produce to be a reliable fantasy threat.

Speed & Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 2 (Personal Score: 2)

Arcega-Whiteside didn’t show a ton in terms of speed and acceleration.  He will probably end up running in the 4.5-4.6 range.  One of the things I was constantly seeing during his film was him failing to create separation, especially when up against better competition.  Arcega-Whiteside does a good job of finding other ways to beat defenders.  Don’t plan on Arcega-Whiteside being a burner at the NFL level and he will definitely have his limitations after the catch.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 2)

This was a difficult area to assess Arcega-Whiteside on.  While at Stanford, he had a very limited route tree, mostly running fly routes and crossing routes, which seems to be a consistent theme with Stanford pass catchers. 

Arcega-Whiteside did show some promising qualities in the limited routes he did run.  He showed good footwork, an ability to cleanly breakdown and does a good job of finding open space on crossing routes.  These qualities are what lead to one of our writers to rate Arcega-Whiteside’s route running a 4 out of 5.  I recognize these qualities but would have liked to see him use these qualities in a variety of routes.  It’s just too much of a question mark right now on how Arcega-Whiteside will perform on more complex routes.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Although blocking won’t earn a player any fantasy points, it is a great way for a young wide receiver to get on the field.  No matter what his landing spot is, Arcega-Whiteside will find himself on the field right away because of his ability to block.  Arcega-Whiteside does a good job using his large frame to engage with defenders and turning them around to create a hole. 

His size and technique will help his blocking translate to the NFL.  If the play wasn’t going his direction, there were times where he didn’t give his best effort.

Handwork & Positioning: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

This is where Arcega-Whiteside excels.  Arcega-Whiteside displayed a very quick release and good hand work when he did see press coverage.  He rarely saw press coverage, so that may be an adjustment he has to make at the NFL level.  The most impressive part of his game is his body positioning and ability to go up and get the ball.  He does a great job of coming down with jump balls and always seems to be in position to make the catch. 

This skill set is displayed incredibly well in the Red Zone.  He does a great job of getting in front of and boxing out defenders in the end zone.  He has the ability to produce double-digit touchdowns right away in the NFL.  Also, because he usually has great body positioning, Arcega-Whiteside does draw quite a few pass interferences.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 2.3 (Personal Score: 2)

Arcega-Whiteside does have decent athleticism for a wide receiver his size.  He has really good body control.  Doesn’t display a ton of strength and is very limited after the catch.  Even on his crossing routes, Arcega-Whiteside was consistently taken down within 5 yards of catching the ball.  This may be affected by the scheme Stanford runs, but I just wish I would have been able to see him do more after the catch.  Didn’t really showcase any juke moves or breakaway speed to make defenders miss.

Conclusion: 2nd Round Target

The thing about this rookie class is that the landing spot for these players will have a huge impact.  If Arcega-Whiteside ends up in a high-powered offense that is going to score a lot, I can see an argument for him going in the late 1st round of rookie drafts.  But solely based on talent and skill set, I’d be comfortable taking Arcega-Whiteside anywhere in the second round of rookie drafts.  He should be a consistent Red Zone threat and definitely has the ability to go get 50/50 balls in the NFL.  The real question marks to watch for will be his ability to create separation in the NFL, his adjustment to an expanded route tree and if he will be able to do more after the catch.

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate […]

Fantasy Football 0

It’s Miller Time! Why Anthony Miller is Worth Your First Round Pick


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Since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears, Anthony Miller has showed a ton of promise.  Miller has shown that he can create separation, play both outside and in the slot and can be a viable RedZone threat.  His versatility and confidence has led to some early production and faith from the coaching staff and fellow players. 

I believe that as he continues to grow and gain chemistry with Mitchell Trubisky, Miller will surpass Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson to become the WR 1 in Chicago.  If you haven’t already, go buy Anthony Miller either before your leagues trade deadline or at the beginning of the fantasy offseason. 

The Price is Right

            One reason to go out and get Anthony Miller is because of his current price in dynasty.  According to Dynasty League Football’s November ADP, Miller is being drafted as the WR 44, behind guys like Devin Funchess, John Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  When you look at the ADP, Miller is one of the few guys being drafted later than WR 35 that has the upside to drastically move up in value.  

I think that Miller has a realistic shot of being a top 20 dynasty WR by this time next season. With Miller’s development and increased role in Chicago, I would definitely want the upside of Miller over those three guys I previously mentioned.  

Based on his current ADP, it would probably take a late 2019 1st round rookie pick to acquire Miller.  With the perceived strength of this draft being the first 7 or 8 picks, with not a ton of depth, it would be worth it to pair a late 1st and a small piece to trade for Miller.

He’s Earned Nagy & Trubisky’s Trust-You’re Next

            One of the main reasons to be optimistic about Anthony Miller is his increased role in the Chicago offense.  When looking at the season as a whole, Miller has a snap percentage of 63.7%.  But when you look at his snap percentage from Week 6 on, it jumps to 73%.  Miller has the skill and versatility to be on the field in any situation, regardless of down and distance or area of the field. As Miller continues to develop physically and mentally, it’s going to be difficult for Head Coach Matt Nagy to take Miller off the field.

            Along with seeing an increase in his snap percentage, Miller is becoming one of Mitchell Trubisky’s favorite targets. Since Week 3, there is only one game where Miller failed to have at least 5 targets or score a touchdown.  That was this past week against Detroit, when Chase Daniel was the starting QB.  When watching the Chicago Bears, it is clear that Mitchell Trubisky is gaining chemistry with Anthony Miller.  This chemistry has even carried over to the red zone, where the 5’11 WR has 4 catches and 2 TDs from inside 20 yards in the past 4 games. 

A Nagy Offense is Worth Investing In

            This past off-season, the Chicago Bears made a huge effort to improve their offense.  In 2017, Chicago’s offense had 267 first downs, averaged 4.9 yards per play, had 26 offensive touchdowns and had an average time of possession of 28:57.  Now returning to 2018, through only 11 games, Chicago’s offense has 235 first downs, averaging 5.6 yards per play, has 32 offensive touchdowns and has an average time of possession of 31:17.  

The improvements this team has made is incredible.  And this is in their first year under new Head Coach Matt Nagy.  If we are already seeing this type of improvement in Year 1, imagine what we can expect to see in the coming seasons.  This offense is young and exciting. As Mitchell Trubisky continues to grow and improve, this offense has potential to a be a top 8 unit in the NFL.  As that happens, Miller will see more snaps and red zone opportunities, which translate to fantasy production. 


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Since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears, Anthony Miller has showed a ton of promise.  Miller has shown that he can create separation, […]

Dynasty 0

The End of an Era: It’s Time to Part Ways with Gronk

The 2018 fantasy season has been terribly frustrating for Rob Gronkowski owners.  Even when he has been healthy, Gronk’s production just hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Being taken in the top 30 of most drafts, Gronk is expected to be producing as a top 3 TE and have these huge week-winning games. Even after a mediocre start to the season, Gronkowski still has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 31st overall, according to Dynasty League Football’s October start up ADP.  This is ahead of guys such as James Conner, Sony Michel and Zach Ertz.  When November data comes out, I’m sure his ADP is going to drop.

If you can get a future 1st round pick or more for Gronkowski, it is definitely time to sell.

The Injuries

The main reason that I believe it is time to sell Gronkowski is his injury history. Since the 2011 season, Gronkowski has only had one season where he didn’t miss a game due to an injury (2014).  Gronk’s previous injuries that have caused him to miss games includes a broken/infected left forearm 2x (2012 & 2013), torn right ACL (2013), sprained knee (2015), injured hamstring (2016), lung contusion (2016), lower back injury (2016), thigh contusion (2017), concussion (2017) and back/ankle issues (2018).

That is a huge list, and honestly, I may have missed one or two.  There just always seems to be something wrong with Gronkowski. Largely due to these injuries, we have already heard Gronkowski contemplate retiring this last off season.  I believe that it is realistic that Gronkowski will end up retiring by the end of the 2019 NFL season.  If that’s the case, there will only be a very short window to get anything in return for one of the all-time greats.

The Production

Another reason for concern with Gronkowski is the drop off in production.  Now, this may be due to the injuries, but Gronkowski just isn’t producing like a top tight end this season.  Currently ranked as the TE 12 while playing 7 games, Gronk has 29 receptions, 448 yards and 1 touchdown.  This comes out to an average on 9.1 fantasy points per game, based on .5ppr scoring.

With the price that fantasy owners had to pay for Gronkowski, they were definitely expecting more then 9 points per game.  With the exception of Week 1, Gronkowski hasn’t showed the ability to produce those week-winning games that we all once loved.  If Gronkowski can’t have these huge games and consistently produce as a top 3 TE, it is hard to rationalize keeping or even paying the price for Gronkowski.

End of a Dynasty?

Besides his size and athleticism, one of the main reasons why Gronkowski has been so successful in the NFL is the phenomenal landing spot.  Being drafted by the New England Patriots in the 2010 NFL Draft, Gronkowski has gotten to play his whole career with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.  These two have been the leaders of possibly the greatest 15 year span we have ever seen by a professional sports team.

For as remarkable the run has been, there is no doubt that we are reaching the end.  Even if Gronkowski ends up playing for 5 more years, will Belichick and Brady still be around?  Unless the Patriots end up pulling off a Favre/Rodgers transition, it’s hard to find a scenario where Gronkowski continues to be a top fantasy TE in a few years while the Patriots are trying to find their next QB.

 

 

 

The 2018 fantasy season has been terribly frustrating for Rob Gronkowski owners.  Even when he has been healthy, Gronk’s production just hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Being taken in the […]