It’s Miller Time! Why Anthony Miller is Worth Your First Round Pick


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Since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears, Anthony Miller has showed a ton of promise.  Miller has shown that he can create separation, play both outside and in the slot and can be a viable RedZone threat.  His versatility and confidence has led to some early production and faith from the coaching staff and fellow players. 

I believe that as he continues to grow and gain chemistry with Mitchell Trubisky, Miller will surpass Taylor Gabriel and Allen Robinson to become the WR 1 in Chicago.  If you haven’t already, go buy Anthony Miller either before your leagues trade deadline or at the beginning of the fantasy offseason. 

The Price is Right

            One reason to go out and get Anthony Miller is because of his current price in dynasty.  According to Dynasty League Football’s November ADP, Miller is being drafted as the WR 44, behind guys like Devin Funchess, John Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  When you look at the ADP, Miller is one of the few guys being drafted later than WR 35 that has the upside to drastically move up in value.  

I think that Miller has a realistic shot of being a top 20 dynasty WR by this time next season. With Miller’s development and increased role in Chicago, I would definitely want the upside of Miller over those three guys I previously mentioned.  

Based on his current ADP, it would probably take a late 2019 1st round rookie pick to acquire Miller.  With the perceived strength of this draft being the first 7 or 8 picks, with not a ton of depth, it would be worth it to pair a late 1st and a small piece to trade for Miller.

He’s Earned Nagy & Trubisky’s Trust-You’re Next

            One of the main reasons to be optimistic about Anthony Miller is his increased role in the Chicago offense.  When looking at the season as a whole, Miller has a snap percentage of 63.7%.  But when you look at his snap percentage from Week 6 on, it jumps to 73%.  Miller has the skill and versatility to be on the field in any situation, regardless of down and distance or area of the field. As Miller continues to develop physically and mentally, it’s going to be difficult for Head Coach Matt Nagy to take Miller off the field.

            Along with seeing an increase in his snap percentage, Miller is becoming one of Mitchell Trubisky’s favorite targets. Since Week 3, there is only one game where Miller failed to have at least 5 targets or score a touchdown.  That was this past week against Detroit, when Chase Daniel was the starting QB.  When watching the Chicago Bears, it is clear that Mitchell Trubisky is gaining chemistry with Anthony Miller.  This chemistry has even carried over to the red zone, where the 5’11 WR has 4 catches and 2 TDs from inside 20 yards in the past 4 games. 

A Nagy Offense is Worth Investing In

            This past off-season, the Chicago Bears made a huge effort to improve their offense.  In 2017, Chicago’s offense had 267 first downs, averaged 4.9 yards per play, had 26 offensive touchdowns and had an average time of possession of 28:57.  Now returning to 2018, through only 11 games, Chicago’s offense has 235 first downs, averaging 5.6 yards per play, has 32 offensive touchdowns and has an average time of possession of 31:17.  

The improvements this team has made is incredible.  And this is in their first year under new Head Coach Matt Nagy.  If we are already seeing this type of improvement in Year 1, imagine what we can expect to see in the coming seasons.  This offense is young and exciting. As Mitchell Trubisky continues to grow and improve, this offense has potential to a be a top 8 unit in the NFL.  As that happens, Miller will see more snaps and red zone opportunities, which translate to fantasy production. 


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Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2” Since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Chicago Bears, Anthony Miller has showed a ton of promise.  Miller has shown that he can create separation, play both outside and in the … Continue reading It’s Miller Time! Why Anthony Miller is Worth Your First Round Pick

The End of an Era: It’s Time to Part Ways with Gronk

The 2018 fantasy season has been terribly frustrating for Rob Gronkowski owners.  Even when he has been healthy, Gronk’s production just hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Being taken in the top 30 of most drafts, Gronk is expected to be producing as a top 3 TE and have these huge week-winning games. Even after a mediocre start to the season, Gronkowski still has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 31st overall, according to Dynasty League Football’s October start up ADP.  This is ahead of guys such as James Conner, Sony Michel and Zach Ertz.  When November data comes out, I’m sure his ADP is going to drop.

If you can get a future 1st round pick or more for Gronkowski, it is definitely time to sell.

The Injuries

The main reason that I believe it is time to sell Gronkowski is his injury history. Since the 2011 season, Gronkowski has only had one season where he didn’t miss a game due to an injury (2014).  Gronk’s previous injuries that have caused him to miss games includes a broken/infected left forearm 2x (2012 & 2013), torn right ACL (2013), sprained knee (2015), injured hamstring (2016), lung contusion (2016), lower back injury (2016), thigh contusion (2017), concussion (2017) and back/ankle issues (2018).

That is a huge list, and honestly, I may have missed one or two.  There just always seems to be something wrong with Gronkowski. Largely due to these injuries, we have already heard Gronkowski contemplate retiring this last off season.  I believe that it is realistic that Gronkowski will end up retiring by the end of the 2019 NFL season.  If that’s the case, there will only be a very short window to get anything in return for one of the all-time greats.

The Production

Another reason for concern with Gronkowski is the drop off in production.  Now, this may be due to the injuries, but Gronkowski just isn’t producing like a top tight end this season.  Currently ranked as the TE 12 while playing 7 games, Gronk has 29 receptions, 448 yards and 1 touchdown.  This comes out to an average on 9.1 fantasy points per game, based on .5ppr scoring.

With the price that fantasy owners had to pay for Gronkowski, they were definitely expecting more then 9 points per game.  With the exception of Week 1, Gronkowski hasn’t showed the ability to produce those week-winning games that we all once loved.  If Gronkowski can’t have these huge games and consistently produce as a top 3 TE, it is hard to rationalize keeping or even paying the price for Gronkowski.

End of a Dynasty?

Besides his size and athleticism, one of the main reasons why Gronkowski has been so successful in the NFL is the phenomenal landing spot.  Being drafted by the New England Patriots in the 2010 NFL Draft, Gronkowski has gotten to play his whole career with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.  These two have been the leaders of possibly the greatest 15 year span we have ever seen by a professional sports team.

For as remarkable the run has been, there is no doubt that we are reaching the end.  Even if Gronkowski ends up playing for 5 more years, will Belichick and Brady still be around?  Unless the Patriots end up pulling off a Favre/Rodgers transition, it’s hard to find a scenario where Gronkowski continues to be a top fantasy TE in a few years while the Patriots are trying to find their next QB.

 

 

 

The 2018 fantasy season has been terribly frustrating for Rob Gronkowski owners.  Even when he has been healthy, Gronk’s production just hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Being taken in the top 30 of most drafts, Gronk is expected to be producing as a top 3 TE and have these huge week-winning games. Even after a … Continue reading The End of an Era: It’s Time to Part Ways with Gronk

Buy Trubisky in Dynasty…While You Can

Now before I get started, this is not a case for Mitchell Trubisky being a top QB in the NFL.  Through his first year and a half in the league, Trubisky has displayed a ton of inconsistency with his play, which is common for young QBs.

Despite his inconsistent play, Trubisky has shown that he has the potential to be a top 10 fantasy QB.  According to dynastyleaguefootball.com, Trubisky is currently being drafted as QB 20.  That is behind guys like Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Marcus Mariota.  I am at the point where I would easily rather have Trubisky over any of the 2018 rookie QBs and average vets like Mariota.  Here is my case for Trubisky being valued as a top 12 QB in dynasty leagues.

He’s Producing!

It hasn’t always looked pretty, but Trubisky has started producing like a fantasy stud.  Through 6 games, Trubisky is averaging 266 passing yards/game, 41 rushing yards/game and 2.5 total touchdowns/game.  Those numbers are extremely impressive considering his first three games of the season were complete duds.

Trubisky is showing improvement each week and seems to be understanding the new offensive scheme brought in by 1st year head coach Matt Nagy.  It definitely doesn’t look pretty at times, but Trubisky is showing that he can have a huge ceiling in this offense, in terms of fantasy production.  Plus, Trubisky has been producing on the ground, which should give him a nice floor on a weekly basis.

Take A Look at KC

After the 2017 season, Chicago brought in former Kansas City OC Matt Nagy to be its new head coach.  Since the moment Nagy was hired, the Bears have done their best to find players that match certain roles that are prominent in an Andy Reid style offense.  I will hit more on the weapons in a bit, but it is obvious that Nagy is trying to replicate what the Chiefs have done, which is to create one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, especially for the quarter back.

Due to where they were drafted, Trubisky will always be compared to Patrick Mahomes, which is fair.  But keep in mind that Mahomes got to sit and learn this complicated West Coast system for a whole year.  As I mentioned earlier, Trubisky is improving every week.  If he can continue to learn and develop in this system, we could see this offense become as productive as the one in Kansas City, which would do wonders for Trubisky’s dynasty value.

Chicago’s Offensive Weapons

As mentioned above, Chicago did a good job of bringing in offensive weapons that should help Trubisky and this offense take the next step. To fill the Travis Kelce role, Chicago brought in TE Try Burton through free agency.  Burton is a versatile player that is quickly becoming one of Trubisky’s favorite targets.  Through 6 games, Burton is showing that he can be a threat in between the 20’s and also in the RedZone.  To fill the Tyreek Hill role, the Bears brought in WR Taylor Gabriel and have RB Tarik Cohen.  Gabriel is a guy that can both streak down the sideline to spread a defense out or catch a slant out of the slot and take it to the house.  Cohen is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL coming out of the back field.  He can take a pitch to the house on any play and is great route runner and contributor in the passing game.  These three guys, plus WR Allen Robinson, rookie WR Anthony Miller and RB Jordan Howard will help give Trubisky every chance in the world to succeed.

Now before I get started, this is not a case for Mitchell Trubisky being a top QB in the NFL.  Through his first year and a half in the league, Trubisky has displayed a ton of inconsistency with his play, which is common for young QBs. Despite his inconsistent play, Trubisky has shown that he … Continue reading Buy Trubisky in Dynasty…While You Can

The Downfall of Russell Wilson

Coming into the 2018-2019 NFL Season, Russell Wilson was considered a top 3 dynasty quarterback by much of the community.  In the past, Wilson has been able to put up good passing numbers and provide a safe floor with his rushing production.  However, that is not the case this season.  Wilson is currently ranked as QB 19 through Week 5.  If Wilson is on your team, you most likely had to draft him early and have been forced to play him, which has killed your team.  In terms of dynasty, I think it’s safe to say that Wilson is no longer a top 8 option at the QB position.  If you can still get anywhere near top 8 value for Wilson, it is time to sell. 

Let’s take a look at why he’s no longer the dazzling quarterback that led many fantasy teams to their championships just last season.

Emergence of the Young Quarterbacks

Part of the reason Wilson has fallen outside of the top 8 is the emergence of the young QBs in the NFL.  When we think about emerging quarterbacks, the first name everyone immediately thinks about is Patrick Mahomes, which is definitely deserved for the QB1 in fantasy.  However, there are some more young QBs that have been producing extremely well through the first 5 weeks.  Jared Goff is ranked as the QB4 and Deshaun Watson is ranked as the QB6.  When you take these three QBs and consider the usual suspects of Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton, it’s hard to find a spot for Wilson in the top 8 dynasty QBs, possibly even the top 10. 

Where Did the Rushing Go?

Part of what made Russell Wilson such a valuable fantasy option was his ability to rush the ball and get a few extra touchdowns a year through the ground.  Through his first 6 seasons in the NFL, all of which he finished as the QB 12 or better, Wilson averaged 546 rushing yards and 2.67 rushing touchdowns a season.  Through 5 weeks, Wilson has only produces 42 rushing yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.  At this rate, Wilson will end up with only 134 rushing yards, by far the lowest of his career.  If Wilson can’t produce on the ground, it is going to be impossible to rely on him as a top 12 option at the QB position. 

The Seahawks Are In A Bad Place

The thing that worries me the most about Russell Wilson as a dynasty asset is the fact that the Seattle Seahawks have shown us that they are no longer a great franchise.  I know, they won a Super Bowl a few years ago, but look at what they have done recently. 

For starters, the Seahawks are refusing to provide Wilson with a decent offensive line.  Last season, the Seahawks had the 30th ranked O-Line according to Pro Football Focus.  This hasn’t gotten any better this season.  Through 5 games, Wilson has already been sacked 18 times, which is on pace to be the most of his career.  For whatever reason, the Seahawks have neglected the O-Line and are going to get their QB seriously injured. 

On top of the O-Line, The Seahawks have not done a great job drafting the last few years.  When going back to 2016, the only pick that the Seahawks have spent on offensive players that have made a significant impact is Chris Carson, who was a 7th rounder.  The most notable draft pick that it seems the Seahawks have messed up is their 1st rounder in 2018, running back Rashaad Penny.  Not only was Penny projected to be a 3rd/4th round pick, the Seahawks also had bigger holes at more important positions, such as offensive line.  To make matters worse, Penny hasn’t been able to beat out the previously mentioned Carson or Mike Davis and has had very few reps this season. 

Unless there is some major overhaul in personal or philosophy in the Seahawks front office,  I don’t see Wilson’s situation getting any better. 

Coming into the 2018-2019 NFL Season, Russell Wilson was considered a top 3 dynasty quarterback by much of the community.  In the past, Wilson has been able to put up good passing numbers and provide a safe floor with his rushing production.  However, that is not the case this season.  Wilson is currently ranked as … Continue reading The Downfall of Russell Wilson

Is George Kittle a Top Dynasty Tight End?

The 2018 NFL season has not been great to the tight end position.  Through Week 4, we have already seen huge injuries to guys like Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and Hunter Henry.  If that weren’t enough, we have seen a ton of inconsistency with players such as Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Trey Burton. 

Due to all of this, George Kittle has emerged as one of the top options on a weekly basis for fantasy owners.  In full ppr leagues, Kittle has put up at least 14 fantasy points in 3 of the first 4 weeks.   In terms of dynasty, Kittle is a huge buy for me at this point.  I think it is time to start considering Kittle as a top 7 option at the position.

Current Tight End Landscape

The major reason for my bullishness on Kittle is the fact that there just aren’t many good, young tight ends to be excited about.  Once you get outside of the consensus top 4, fantasy owners are desperately hoping for one of these young talented tight ends to start producing on a consistent basis.  We have been waiting on the likes of Hunter Henry, Trey Burton and Eric Ebron, but for a variety of reasons, these guys haven’t been able to produce like a top 5 TE on a consistent basis.  Kittle is starting to look like the option we have been looking for the past couple of years.  He is young, connected to a young nucleus in San Francisco and is starting to produce on a regular basis.  So far in 2018, he has received 28 targets, which have turned into 18 receptions for 316 yards and 1 touchdown.  His 18 receptions is tied for 4th amongst tight ends.  Kittle has been on the field for 92% of the 49ers offensive plays and continues to show the coaching staff that he deserves every one of those snaps.  As Kittle continues to develop and gains chemistry in this San Francisco offense, there is no ceiling to Kittle and his fantasy production. 

Kittle is an Athletic Freak

On top of having opportunity in what is a brutal tight end landscape, Kittle one of the best athletes at the tight end position.  During his workouts at the 2017 NFL Draft Combine, Kittle scored off the charts.  He finished in the 89th percentile or higher in the 40-Yard Dash, Speed Score, Burst Score, Agility Score and Catch Radius.  This means that he finished better then at least 89% of the participants in all of those tests.  Kittle showed that his athleticism translates to the field in a huge 82 yard touchdown reception during his Week 4 matchup against the Chargers.  Not many tight ends in the game have the ability to produce an 82 yard reception.  If Kittle can continue to use his athleticism to produce big plays, he will have upside that most tight ends just do not have in the NFL

The NFC West

One of the things that makes somebody a top fantasy option is opportunity.  I think that being a starting tight end in the NFC West will give Kittle a ton of opportunity to produce.  The NFC features one of the most electric offenses in the league with the Los Angelos Rams, a top 5 QB with Russel Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals, who have David Johnson and Josh Rosen, who they hope becomes their franchise quarterback.  The fact is that this division is going to be producing offense.  If the 49ers want to be contenders in the NFC, they are going to have to score a ton of points to keep up with those other 3 teams.  This should give Kittle a ton of opportunity to produce in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. 

The 2018 NFL season has not been great to the tight end position.  Through Week 4, we have already seen huge injuries to guys like Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and Hunter Henry.  If that weren’t enough, we have seen a ton of inconsistency with players such as Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Trey Burton.  Due … Continue reading Is George Kittle a Top Dynasty Tight End?

Will Fuller: More Than Boom/Bust

Since entering the league in 2016, Will Fuller has gained the label of a Boom/Bust player in fantasy football.  A Boom/Bust player is someone who has a high ceiling and a low floor.  I believe that this was a fair label to place on Will Fuller.  He has been a player that when healthy, has been very inconsistent with his play and fantasy production.  However, I think that things are turning around for Will Fuller and I believe he has the capability of becoming a reliable low end WR 2 in fantasy football.  Here are a few reasons for my optimism and why I am buying Will Fuller in dynasty leagues.

Fuller + Watson = Perfect Match

It is well documented how incredible Deshaun Watson was in his first 6 career NFL games last season, prior to tearing his ACL. One of the biggest beneficiaries of those performances was Will Fuller.  In 4 games in 2017 with Watson, Fuller saw 22 targets, which led to 13 receptions for 279 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Coming into 2018, we knew that there would be regression for Watson.  And there definitely has been.  Watson has only put up 5 passing touchdowns through three games and has a completion percentage below 60%. But this hasn’t effected Fuller’s fantasy production.  In 2 games played, Fuller has put up 13 receptions on 20 targets for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns.  It’s becoming evident that Watson and Fuller have this connection and that Fuller is becoming Watson’s favorite target.  Fuller has become a reliable asset when playing with Watson.  We are reaching a point where we have enough evidence of this not being a “fluke”.  As long as Fuller and Watson are both on the field, I am very comfortable having Fuller as my WR2.

The Texans Are Not Good

Another thing that will help Fuller be a consistent fantasy contributor is the fact that the Houston Texans just are not a good team.  They have been playing poor football so far in 2018 and if this continues, they will be trailing in games, causing the offense to become even more pass heavy.  According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), only three members of the Texans defense are performing at a High Quality or Elite level, based on PFF Grades.  Also according to PFF, all of their offensive lineman, tight ends or running backs are performing at an Average level or lower.   The only thing this team can do really well is pass the ball.  All of this is giving me optimism that Fuller can become a more consistent fantasy asset, when healthy. 

DeAndre Hopkins is a Beast!

DeAndre Hopkins has become one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.   According to PFF, Hopkins has a top 10 grade and has been on the field for the second most snaps amongst all wide receivers graded.  Hopkins is a stud that is always on a field, and that is great for Fuller.  Defenses have to game plan for Hopkins and are going to give him a ton of attention.  Fuller is going to find great opportunities down the field while the safeties are occupied with where Hopkins is on the field.  It is a similar situation to what JuJu Smith-Schuster is experiencing along side Antonio Brown.  When you are playing alongside one of the best wide receivers in the game, there are going to be opportunities for you.

Since entering the league in 2016, Will Fuller has gained the label of a Boom/Bust player in fantasy football.  A Boom/Bust player is someone who has a high ceiling and a low floor.  I believe that this was a fair label to place on Will Fuller.  He has been a player that when healthy, has … Continue reading Will Fuller: More Than Boom/Bust