5 Rounds of Week 13 DRAFT Advice


Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2”

Note: The article has been edited to remove suggestions to play Kareem Hunt since his Friday release 

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Round 1: 2 (RBS) & I’m Out

There’s only 3 running backs I’m willing to spend my 1st round pick on this week; luckily they aren’t necessarily the first 3 going off the board. Mixed in with the 3 listed below, are Barkley and Conner. Barkley may seem tempting still since Chicago has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, however, they’ve allowed the 7th least receiving yards to running backs, including just 5 touchdowns through the air. Combined that with what’s likely to be a stalled offense and Khalil Mack sealing the edge, and I’m out on an otherwise lock play. Conner has just 35 carries, 143 rushing yards, and 1 touchdown combined in his last 3 weeks-and his match-up against the Chargers doesn’t inspire me enough to burn my top pick. Here’s the guys I would take:

  • Todd Gurley

This game is the second highest over/under of the week (55 points) and the Rams have the second highest implied total of the week (32). The Lions have allowed the 7th most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, and 11 total touchdowns. Gurley is reportedly back to full health after an ankle scare in his last game. He’s my 2ndfavorite pick this week.

  • Christian McCaffery

CMC has finished as a top 2 running back twice in the last 3 weeks. Those match-ups were against the 9th best defense against the rush (Pittsburgh) and Seattle, which is ranked 18th against the rush. This week, he gets the Bucs-they’ve ranked 25th against the run and have allowed the 11th most receiving yards to running backs and 17 total touchdowns this season. Vegas pegs this game as high-scoring (54.5) and I peg this as the week Carolina declares they’re back in the conversation as a playoff contender.

The 2nd Round Should be Stacked

The drop off at running back makes it essential to pivot quickly if players don’t drop to you in the back end of the first. It does create the opportunity to reel in a money-making stack: Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.

I’ve already made the case for the Kansas City offense, and Mahomes needs no further explanation. Hill has finished as the WR1 in Weeks 10 and 11, and he’s fresh off a Week 12 bye. In Weeks 10 and 11 he combined for 342 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Oakland has allowed the 6th most touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season and is ranked 28th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. My suggestion is to take Mahomes in 1st-Tyreek has consistently made it to the early 2nd for me, but if he does get taken you can pivot again (cue Friends reference) and stack Mahomes with Kelce later on.


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Backs Run the 3rd Round

Good things will come to those who wait for their 2nd running back this week. Steer right past Johnson and Mixon’s negative game scripts and grab one of these guys, who have consistently been available in the third. Note: Davante Adams makes a great 3rd round value (high floor, high implied total) if you do start with 2 running backs.

  • Phillip Lindsey

Lindsey rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, on just 14 touches against the Steelers 10th ranked rush defense. In Week 11 he rushed for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches, against the 15th ranked Chargers rush defense. In Week 13 he faces the Bengals 32nd (aka worst) ranked run defense. Cincinnati has allowed 1,896 total yards and 17 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Add into the mix that Denver is likely to have a positive game script against a Driskell-led Bengals team, and this one is a no-brainier.

  • Aaron Jones

Jones has found the endzone in 4 of his 5 games since Week 6. He’s scored 6 times in those 5 games, including 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games. He’s also totaled at least 85 combined yards in all 5 oft hose games and finished as RB4 in Week 10 against Miami. Not only does Jones have a positive game-script, he’s facing the second worst rushing defense in the league. The Cardinals have allowed 1,454 rushing yards (2ndmost) and 14 rushing touchdowns (the most) to running backs this season. Jones is a close 3B to Lindsey’s 3A value this week.

  • Nick Chubb

Chubb rushed for more than 84 yards just once under Jackson and Haley. Since their dismissal, and the subsequent offensive makeover under Kitchens, Chubb’s rushed for 84 yards in all 3 games. Chubb’s also had two games with at least 33 receiving yards, compared to 0 games with more than 10 receiving yards. Chubb also has 5 total touchdowns since Kitchens took over. Chubb falls below Lindsey and Jones for me, however, because his match-up vs Houston this week (6th best run defense) is significantly tougher than his previous 3 against Kansas City, Atlanta, and Cincinnati.

Be Patient and You Shall Receive in the 4th

Two big names have been hanging around late this week. They’re being pushed down by tough match-ups, mid-round running back value, and a nincreased appeal to tight ends like Kelce and Ertz. Still, these two names bring enough of a floor to justify their weekly upside potential.

  • Odell Beckham Jr.

OBJ’s match-up is tough, but not as tough as you may think. Chicago is ranked 1st in DVOA and this game has the 2nd lowest over/under total (with the Giants having an implied total of 20 points). The Bears, however, have been a strong run defense (2nd) than pass defense (18th). They’ve allowed the 7th most receiving yards to wide outs this season and have allowed 14 touchdowns. It’s also worth noting that the Bears will likely be led again by Daniel-who performed well against the Lions but still has very little experience as a starter-a positive game script for the Bears isn’t guaranteed.

  • Antonio Brown

I understand OBJ slipping, but Brown makes no sense to me. The Chargers are the 7th best passing defense this season and 9th in DVOA, however, they have still allowed 10 touchdowns to wideouts. Although Brown didn’t catch a touchdown pass in Week12, he has found the endzone in 9 of the 11 games he’s played this season-including two multiple touchdown weeks. He’s worthy of a 3rdround pick, even with the match-up, making him a must grab if he’s falling toyou as far as he’s fallen to me this week.  

5, Round 5 Quick QB Pivots

I mentioned earlier Mahomes has 1st round value,I also expect Newton to go off the board in the mid-rounds. I quickly broked own the highlights of my next 5 highest ranked QBs (in order) for Week 13.

  • Andrew Luck

Projections will be low for Luck this week because, overall, the Jaguars defense has been solid (17th) against quarterbacks this season. The Jaguars offense, however, is in shambles-with Bortles benched and Fournette suspended. While Jacksonville has been imploding, Luck has quietly racked up 8 straight weeks with top 10 fantasy finishes (excluding his bye week).

  • Jared Goff

The red-hot Rams are coming off a huge win against Kansas City and a full week of rest. Prior to his bye, Goff had thrown for at least 300 yards 3 weeks in a row-and posted a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s likely to beat up against a Lions defense that has allowed the 11thmost fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, the 4thmost in the last month, and the 4th most touchdowns on the season.

  • Kirk Cousins

I’ve seen a lot of hesitancy to play Cousins this week, which baffles me. Cousins is coming off his 2ndbest week of the season-posting 342 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Packers in Week 12. In Week 13 he faces off against the Patriots,who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including the 10th most passing yards and 9th most passing touchdowns. Cousins has a safe floor, and big upside in a prove-it game for a team that still considers themselves a Super Bowl contender.

  • Lamar Jackson

If you get past the 5 guys I mentioned above, it’s time to go for upside-and Lamar Jackson is all the upside you could ever want. Since taking over as “starter” in Baltimore, Jackson has averaged 259 total yards per game-including an average of 95 rushing yards. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks,the 2nd most passing touchdowns, the 6th most rushing yards, and the 4th most touchdowns.

  • Russell Wilson

Wilson is coming off his best passing game of the season-throwing for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Panthers. This week he faces off a depleted 49ers team, who have allowed the 8th most points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including allowing 23 touchdowns and only pulling in 2 touchdowns. Vegas implies 28 points for Seattle,suggesting at least 2 touchdowns, with upside for much more for Wilson.

Want an easy, non-intimidating way to try DFS? Check out DRAFT with a free $3 entry.Use promo code “Top2” Note: The article has been edited to remove suggestions to play Kareem Hunt since his Friday release  I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice … Continue reading 5 Rounds of Week 13 DRAFT Advice

Week 11 DFS: 5 Rounds of DRAFT Advice

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

1.1st Round Pick Position Means Less

The trend in recent weeks on DRAFT has been to go running back early; and this week is no different. What is different is the amount of viable, first-round, high upside backs there are. Instead of sweating over getting Gurley with your randomized 1st pick; you have the ability to pivot to Barkley, Gordon, Zeke, Kamara, Conner, and Johnson. Here’s a quick breakdown of the perks of each of these options:

  • Barkley is facing the Buccaneers, who haveallowed the 9th most points to opposing running backs this season;including the 12th most receiving yard to running backs and 3touchdowns. According to Football Outsiders, Tampa Bay is ranked second worstin DVOA-which measures performance is close game situation (to simply it) andthis should be a close match-up throughout.

  • Gordon has been having a very quiet top 5season; with at least 90 yards rushing in his last 4 games (and 5 of his last6). He’s scored at least one touchdown in every game since Week 1; and has atleast 4 targets in every game this season-pulling in a touchdown along with his72 receiving yards last week.

  • Zeke is coming off his best game of the season: wrackingup 180 total yards and 2 touchdowns against an Eagles defense that ranks in thetop 5 against the rush this season. Now he faces off against a bottom 5 Atlantadefense; who’s been vulnerable both in the passing and rushing game-allowing 13total touchdowns to opposing running backs.

  • Conner proved he was match-up proof when he putup 163 total yards and a touchdown against the Ravens (2nd best rushdefense) in Week 9. Now he pulls Jacksonville; who has otherwise shut downrunning backs this season. Pittsburgh is favored by 5.5 in a total over/underof 46.5—giving the Steelers an implied total of over 3 touchdowns. Conner hasscored at least 1 touchdown in every game since Week 5.

  • David Johnson looks like a new man (actually hejust looks like the same man we knew in 2016) in Byron Leftwich’s offense. Heset season highs for himself in rushing yards receiving yards, and receptionsin Week 10. Now he faces a Raiders team that’s allowed the second most rushingyards to running backs this season, and the 4th most fantasy pointsoverall to backs. Johnson’s a huge value at the back end of the first round.

  • I’m not going to dig deep into Todd Gurley,because you don’t need me to tell you he’s good. I will point out he’s playingin a game with a total over/under of 63.5, and the Rams have an implied 33points. That is enough to justify him as the first overall pick, if you do endup with it.

2. Michael Thomas is a 2nd Round Steal

A first running back frenzy is likely to leave you the option of drafting Thomas in the 2nd round. DFS players have been pivoting from him after a mid-season drought, but it’s clear the WR3 on the season is back. In the last two weeks (vs LAR and CIN) he has a combined 281 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s playing in the 2nd highest line of the week (Vegas has the game pegged at a total of 56 points-30 of which are implied to the Saints. Also don’t be fooled by their name: the Eagles defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season, including 1,749 yards and 13 touchdowns. I suggest quickly pivoting from running back in the first to Thomas in the 2nd.

Check out the Top 2 Sports Staff Preview Week 11 on YouTube! 

3. The 3rd Round is Full of Running Back Grenades

The third round is when things get tricky; there’s a steep drop-off in running backs that can make players panic while navigating through options against the 30 second pick clock. It’s sure to lead players into taking some high upside running backs with bad match-ups-a dangerous blend of big names, recent production, and very bad match-ups. Here’s 3 in particular I suggest avoiding:

  • Marlon Mack went on a big run in Weeks 6-8;rushing for over 100 yards twice and compiling 3 touchdowns. Week 10 vs Jacksonvillebrought him back down to earth-he ran for just 29 yards on 12 carries. Now hegets the toughest rushing defense in the league: the Titans, who have allowedjust 3 total touchdowns to running backs all season, and 0 through their air.

  • Joe Mixon has an even bigger name than Mack, butan equally tough match-up against the 2nd ranked Ravens rushingdefense. Baltimore is ranked 5th in DVOA and have allowed just 671rushing yards (77 per game) just 5 total touchdowns to opposing running backs.In Week 2 against the Ravens, Mixon rushed for 84 yards on 21 attempts and 0 touchdowns. 

  • Tevin Coleman is facing the 9thranked Dallas rushing defense, noticing a trend here? Dallas has allowed just659 rushing yards to running backs this season. Coleman hasn’t rushed for 100yards since Week 2 and has combined for over 100 yards just once since Week 2,and just twice all season. Coleman may be a valuable play in other DFS formats,but he’s an expensive mistake on DRAFT.

4. Value isn’t Tight (End) in Round 4

Tight Ends always make your hesitate in DRAFT-they’re often safer players compared to the high ceilings that come with wideouts. Safe isn’t something I advocate for, but safe also isn’t an accurate descriptor for Kelce and Ertz; two players I’ve seen available in multiple 4th rounds this week. Here’s a breakdown of the upside on both guys:

  • Kelce is playing in the previously mentioned 63.5-pointtotal game vs the Rams. The Rams have allowed the 5th most fantasypoints to Tight Ends this season, a great combination for the TE1 on theseason. Kelce has at least 7 targets and 5 receptions in 8 of his 10 teams thisseason, including 3 touchdowns since Week 8. He also has 5 games above 95 receivingyards this season.

  • Zach Ertz is likely to be tangled in a shootoutagainst the Saints, who are ranked 27 in DVOA.  Vegas has this game pegged at 56 points, whichwould be the highest game most weeks this season. Ertz has 4 100-yard gamesthis season, including 2 in the last 3 weeks. He’s found the endzone 5 times inthe last 5 weeks, and I’m thinking he makes it 6 for 6 after Week 11.

5. You Won’t Get Mahomes in the 5th, but You Will Get Value

Mahomes will be well gone by the 5th(you’d be lucky to snag him in the 3rd). Past him, you have a fewoptions that are appealing, but not so good you have to reach into the 4thor earlier to get them.

  • Cam Newton draws the Detroit Lions, who haveallowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over thelast 4 weeks, in Week 11. Newton has a solid floor: with at least 2 touchdownsin 9 of his 10 games this season and at least 250 combined yards in 7 games. Healso has 3 games over 300 combined yards, and 1 game over 400 totalyards-giving you some nice upside. Newton is coming off a rough Week 10 againstPittsburgh (4th toughest defense vs quarterbacks), which shouldallow you to wait and grab him late.

  • Although Dallas has been strong against the passoverall this season, they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points toopposing quarterbacks over the last two weeks. That opens the door for MattRyan (the best fantasy QB not named Patrick this season). He’s thrown for atleast 300 yards in his last 4 games, including 3 games with at least 350 yards.Since Week 6, he has 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. He’s all the safetyyou could ever want and is likely an after thought by fantasy players scared ofan otherwise tough match-up.

  • The Eagles have been struggling, but it’s notbecause of Carson Wentz; he has averaged 318 passing yards and 2.3 touchdownsper game against Carolina, Jacksonville, and Dallas since Week 7. The Saintshave allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season,including 2,799 yards and 23 total touchdowns. He’s my favorite late round pickthis week.
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I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats. If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun … Continue reading Week 11 DFS: 5 Rounds of DRAFT Advice

DFS: Week 10 DRAFT Favorite Plays, Upside Picks, & Must Avoids

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Matt Ryan (ATL) vs Cleveland

I’ll start by providing my usual disclaimer: I’m not going to list Pat Mahomes in this slot every week, if you want to draft him over Ryan, go for it. That being said, Ryan is my QB1 overall this week. The Falcons are facing off against the Browns in 3rd highest over/under of the week. Ryan, the QB2 overall on the season, will be attacking a Browns defense in the middle of the pack (18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) this season. A passing defense which now may be missing both rookie phenom Dez Ward and Demarious Randall for Week 10. In his last 3 games, Ryan has thrown 7 touchdowns (with just 1 interception) and for 1,084 yards while leading his team back into playoff contention. High scoring game + must win + red hot quarterback = cash for my DRAFT lineups.

High Upside: Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Oakland

This one is all about the match-up. The Raiders are beat up, embarrassed, and just all around bad this season. The Raiders rank last in the league in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and rank 31st in the league in weighted DVOA (recent play). This game also has a high over/under (49.5), what it also has, however, is the 2nd largest line of the week (10 points); giving the Chargers an implied 30-point total. Yet, I’ve seen Rivers available at the end of my DRAFTs this week-making for serious upside if you’re not willing to take Mahomes or Ryan in the 3rd round (where I’ve seen them both go). Rivers is QB13 overall on the season and had his 3rd best game of the season against Oakland in week 5-when he threw for 339 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Since Week 5, he’s thrown for 6 touchdowns, 741 yards, and just 1 interception.

Do Not DRAFT:  Jared Goff (LAR) vs Seattle

This is a tough one to turn away from: a 50 point over/under combined with a top 5 quarterback coming off his best game of the season. Yet, that’s exactly what you need to do. The Seahawks have been great against opposing quarterbacks this season; and when I say great, I mean: the best. They’ve allowed the least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season; an average of just 13.5 per game. Opposing quarterbacks have put up just 1,678 yards (210 yards per game) against them-second lowest in the league. They’ve allowed the 6th least touchdowns (12) and have the 6th most interceptions (10) on the season: an almost even touchdown to interception ratio. Th Seahawks rank 5th in DVOA, 4th in weighted DVOA, and 5 in passing defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Running Back: Favorite Play: Kareem Hunt (KC) vs Arizona

This one is tough: there’s 5 legitimate choices if you’re the top pick this week. You could go for Gurley (the easy pick), Barkley (such a tempting match-up, on paper), Gordon (the Raiders are so, so bad…), Kamara (explosive player in the biggest over/under of the week) or you could come to the decision I have: the answer is Hunt. Hunt, the RB6 in PPR, is red hot: totaling 307 rushing yards, 246 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. Combine this with his juice (very juicy) match-up: against an Arizona team that’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. That includes: the 4th most rushing yards against (1057) and 3rd most rushing touchdowns; giving Hunt all the upside he needs. Still, I have one more reason to take him over the temptation that is Todd: the Chiefs have the highest implied total of the week: with a 16.5 point spread on a 49.5 over/under; an implied total of 33.

Upside Target: Duke Johnson (CLE) vs Atlanta

Week 9 saw the revitalization of Duke Johnson’s fantasy value. Freed from the offensive burden which was Hue Jackson, Johnson saw his 3rd highest number of snaps and 3rd highest snap share of the season. He also recorded season highs in: targets, receptions (caught all 9 of his targets), receiving yards (78), and touchdowns (2, compared to just 1 in the first 8 weeks). This isn’t chasing last week’s points, though, this is looking forward to a fantastic week 10 match-up. Atlanta has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. This, however, is much better for Duke than it is Chubb. They’ve allowed the most receptions to running backs (68) and the 4th most receiving yards (515). Duke is projected below 10 points on DRAFT, which is ridiculous and buries him well below sight for 6 team drafts. If you don’t get both running backs in the first 3 rounds, wait it out and grab Duke in the 5th round.

Do Not DRAFT: Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) vs Philadelphia

Zeke is bogged down in fantasy mediocracy this season; something that may be okay for your season-long leagues but is absolutely not okay for DRAFT. He hasn’t scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Week 6. Since Week 5, he’s averaging just 63.5 rushing yards per game, and 25 receiving yards per game. This game has the second lowest under/over of the week, and Dallas has an implied total of 18. Combine these factors with the fact Zeke is going early second round, and you’re setting yourself for a major disappoint during Sunday Night Football.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs Cleveland

I got into the match-up in detail under Matt Ryan, but I couldn’t resist pointing out this big-time stack play. Julio Jones is coming off a liberating week; where he finally found the endzone and gets to play a team that’s given up the second most touchdowns to opposing wideouts over the last 4 weeks. Here’s the thing, though: Jones doesn’t need to find the endzone to perform. He’s wracked up over 100 receiving yards in 5 of his 8 games this season; including 4 of his last 5 games. Jones also has at least 9 targets in his last 5 games and has at least 9 receptions in 4 of those 5 games. If you get caught with the 6th spot (the worst position to pick this week), don’t try to chase running back points: pivot to Jones, stack him with Ryan, and reap points.

Upside Target: Keenan Allen (LAC) vs Oakland

Consider Allen and Rivers to be a cheaper, just as rewarding, version of Ryan-Jones this week. Allen has struggled this season, making his perceived value cheap, but he broke out last week. Allen caught 6 of his 10 targets for 124 yards-his best game since Week 1. What Allen did in Week 1, that he hasn’t since, is find the endzone: that’s right we’re literally looking at a parallel between Allen and Jones here. Now let’s throw this into the mix: Oakland has allowed the 5th most touchdowns to wideouts this season and the 4th most over the last 4 weeks. Wait one more factor (and no, not the match-up, see Rivers above for that argument): Allen’s Week 9 mini-breakout was against the Seahawks…yes the same Seahawks defense that I told you has shutdown passing games (see avoiding Jared Goff). Keenan Allen couldn’t be any more set-up to take you to fantasy glory this week…and he’s cheap! Grab Allen in the 3rd, or maybe even 4th, and his value will do wonders for your DRAFT bankroll.

Do Not DRAFT: Robert Woods (LAR) vs Seattle

If you’re still playing Robert Woods to in DRAFT, you’re living in Week 6. Since Week 5, Woods has finished below Cooks twice, and finished below Kupp in Week 9 (his first week back). He’s failed to break the 100-yard mark and hasn’t found the endzone. I mentioned above why Goff should be avoided, and that goes double for Woods: who is not only competing against a defense that’s shutdown passing attacks; he’s competing with his own teammates (and losing). Season long leagues: sure, other DFS formats: maybe, DRAFT: not a chance he returns value.

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats. If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun … Continue reading DFS: Week 10 DRAFT Favorite Plays, Upside Picks, & Must Avoids

DFS Week 6: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs New England

We saw the floor for Mahomes in Week 5; he threw for 313 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions vs a very tough Jacksonville defense. Mahomes salvaged his fantasy performance by sneaking in a rushing touchdown (his second in the past two weeks). Now Mahomes draws a much easier match-up against the Patriots: who have allowed an average of 262 passing yards and 1.25 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season; and we know Mahomes is far above average. Vegas has this game pegged as the highest scoring game of the week: at 59.5 over/under. Reminder: the Falcons play the Bucs this week in the battle of the trash defenses. I always advocate for waiting on QB, but this week I’ve taken Mahomes in the 3rd round each and every draft I could, and I have zero regrets. I suggest stacking Mahomes with Tyreek Hill whenever possible; they’re all the upside you could ever want.

High Upside: Jared Goff (LAR) vs Denver

Goff’s coming off his worst week of the season, throwing for just 321 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions vs Seattle in Week 5. That, and the uncertainty behind his top two receivers, Kupp and Cooks, clearing concussion protocol has Goff being passed up as a top 6 option this week. Goff, however, has finished as a Top 6 QB twice this season, and as a QB1 3 times. Denver has pulled in just 3 interceptions this season and has allowed 9 passing touchdowns. Denver got torched last week by the rookie Darnold; who is much less intimidating than Goff and the Rams offense. If you miss out on Mahomes or Ryan, wait it out until the end and roll with Goff-who will be in a more competitive game than I believe most expect on the road against a bitter division rival fighting for their playoff lives.

Do Not DRAFT:  Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs Arizona

I rarely advocate against Cousins, especially when the match-up looks so juicy at first sight. Dig a little deeper, though, and you’ll see this match-up is more pulp than juice (unless you’re one of those people that like pulp, weirdo). The Cardinals have allowed the 2nd least passing touchdowns this season (5), with only the Jaguars allowing less. They’re also averaging just under an interception a game and find themselves ranked 14th in passing yards allowed. This is despite facing off against Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and Russell Wilson. I still expect Cousins to be a QB1 this week, but I don’t think he’s worth taking in the top 6 of a format where upside means everything.

Running Back

Favorite Play: Todd Gurley (LAR) vs Denver

Don’t think twice about taking Gurley 1st overall this week-heck, you barely have to think once to realize he’s the clear favorite. Gurley has scored at least 1 touchdown in every game this season, and has scored 3 touchdowns twice. He has at least 3 receptions, 30 receiving yards, and 70 total yards in every game, and has combined for 150 total yards twice. Denver has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (135 yards per game) and the 3rd most touchdowns (5). Bonus: Kamara is on BYE. Some weeks getting the first overall pick doesn’t mean as much, this week it gives you a huge advantage.

Upside Target: James White (NE) vs Kansas City

For some reason, we play in a fantasy football world where people still don’t realize that James White is a RB1. White has scored in 4 games this season (only being shutout by Jacksonville) and has found the endzone 5 times. He’s finished as a top 7 RB in each of the last two weeks (since White and Michel took full ownership of the Pats backfield). Wait, it gets better: Kansas City has allowed the most passing yards to opposing running backs this season (454 yards, 68 more yards than the next most allowed). They’ve also allowed the 3rd most receptions and 2nd most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. That’s a ridiculously good combination for players keen on White: who has 18 receptions on 24 targets for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns the last two weeks. White has been around in the 4th and 5th round of every draft I’ve done so far this week-he is the type of player that will win you the week.

Do Not DRAFT: TJ Yeldon (JAX) vs Dallas

There’s a ton of buzz around Yeldon in fantasy football this week; as it appears he will serve as a long-term substitute for Fournette. Yeldon isn’t a fun substitute though, he’s not going to show you a movie or let you roam the halls without penalty. He’s a boring, yet effective one: he gets good volume, and yards but has a lack of upside. This is problematic, in general, for draft-but it’s even worse when you combine him with a tough match-up. Dallas has allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns and 0 receiving touchdowns to running backs in 5 games. They’ve allowed the 8th least fantasy points to opposing running backs so far; allowing just 69 yards per game on the ground. Yeldon is a trap; avoid the shiny name and dig deeper, even in the late rounds.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs Tampa Bay

I know Julio frustrated you last week, he frustrated me too. Shake it off, though, because it doesn’t get much better than his Week 6 match-up. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. They’ve allowed 747 yards, and 9 touchdowns this season. Reminder: they’ve already had their BYE. That’s 2.5 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts….it has to be the week, people; Julio will find the endzone. Julio has at least 5 receptions in every game this season and has two games with more than 150 yards. He’s an easy first rounder for those who miss out on the initial string of running backs that are likely to fill the top 3 picks.

Upside Target: Davante Adams (GB) vs San Francisco

Adams has slipped into at least the 4th round in all of my drafts so far this week. That leaves players with a ton of value when they click “draft” on WR5 in PPR formats. Adams has at least 7 receptions in every game since Week 2, has eclipsed 80 receiving yards three times, and has found the endzone 4 out of 5 times this season. The 49ers have allowed 812 yards 6 touchdowns to wide receivers this season; the 14th most. Green Bay is likely to have a high time of possession against a 49ers squad that will be without their starting quarterback, starting running back, and back-up running back. Adams has huge value if he’s sitting there in the 4th or 5th round.

Do Not DRAFT: Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs Los Angeles Chargers

Landry is a tempting play this week: he’s facing off against a surprisingly weak Chargers defense; they’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing fantasy players this season. Landry, however, has too low of a ceiling to be a viable DRAFT pick. He’s caught more than 100 yards just twice this season (with a high of 106 yards) and has just one total touchdown on the season. He’s also been very inefficient: catching less than 50% of his targets in 4 of 5 games this season. It’s worth noting, also, that the Chargers’ defensive numbers are severely skewed by a Week 1 beatdown against Kansas City and a Week 3 shootout against the Rams. Plug him into your season-long line-ups all day, but leave him out of DRAFT.

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats. If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun … Continue reading DFS Week 6: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

DFS Week 5: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

Last week I helped you avoid Wilson and Drake and guided you to upside glory with Gio Bernard and Phillip Rivers. I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Matt Ryan (ATL) vs PIT

Ryan is putting the “hot” in “Hot-Lanta” right now. Despite being an afterthought in fantasy drafts this offseason, Ryan has finished as a Top 10 quarterback 3 times this season, and as a Top 5 quarterback twice. He’s currently QB2 overall, QB6 in passing yards, QB6 in passing touchdowns, and has as many interceptions (2) as rushing touchdowns. This week, Ryan faces off against a dismal Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. They’ve allowed an average of 324 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game. Dodge the bigger names and lock in Ryan for Week 5.

High Upside:  Alex Smith (WAS) vs NO

Smith has been pedestrian so far this season, compared to his 2017 re-breakout season. Smith’s done well to protect the ball, with just one interception so far, but has been held back from fantasy relevancy by his 4 total touchdowns. In Week 5 Smith gets to fix that: he plays the Saints, who have allowed 11 touchdowns over the first 4 weeks (two games of which were against Tyrod Taylor and Eli Manning). Smith is coming off an early season BYE that gives Washington a leg up on a hot Saints team. We’re likely to see a shoot-out and Smith (and his fantasy owners) will reap the benefits.

Do Not DRAFT: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs JAX

He’s match-up proof, right? We’re going to see this week: the QB1 sophomore sensation is facing out against the best passing defense in the league. The Jaguars are allowing just 183 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Mahomes has gotten his greatest fantasy return from his league-leading touchdown total (14) but Jacksonville has allowed just 1 passing touchdown to opposing quarterbacks in 4 weeks’ worth of play. Don’t get me wrong, Mahomes will still play well, but he won’t be a top 6 guy and he will demand first 3 rounds value-so I’m out on him in DRAFT this week.

Running Back

Favorite Play: Melvin Gordon (LAC) vs OAK

Per usual, Gordon is flying under the radar this season. Gordon has been tearing up opposing defenses in both the rushing game (276 yards, 2 touchdowns) and passing game (24 receptions, 199 yards, 3 touchdowns). Now he faces off against the Raiders who have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. He’s finished as a top 10 RB in 3 of his 4 weeks this season, making him consistent in every sense of the word. Consistency, when mixed with upside is the key to fantasy victory. Give me Gordon, or give me a loss.

Upside Target: Carlos Hyde (CLE) vs BAL

I bet your reaction was the same most on DRAFT will have this week: no way I’m playing this guy against the Ravens. That’s where the value comes in for the RB6 overall on the season. Hyde isn’t putting up flashy numbers (98 rushing yards is his season high) but he is getting significant volume (21 carries per game). Hyde’s also finding the endzone, a lot, in fact he’s found the endzone in every game this season (and twice against the Jets in Week 3). Hyde should be available in the 5th round of your drafts, allowing you to wrap up your roster with a safe floor and high upside.

Do Not DRAFT: James Conner (PIT) vs ATL

Conner’s an easy guy to get stuck with this week: he’s still a hot name coming off an early start in what is supposed to be a high-powered offense and has a juicy match-up against an Atlanta offense notorious for allowing fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Conner, however, is on a downward trend that should force even his staunchest truthers to pump the brakes. Since getting 31 carries in Week 1, Conner has just 32 total carries in Weeks 2-4. In Week 4, he had just 9 carries and rushed for less than 20 yards for the second time in four weeks. Conner has also seen his snap count consistently drop: he played in 92% of snaps in Week 1, 89% in Week 2, 85% in Week 3, and 79% in Week 4. The Steelers are likely going to be in a high scoring game, where they’re desperately trying to play catch-up as they slowly watch their season slip through their hands. I don’t want the struggling running back who has been non-existent in the passing game in that situation, and neither should you.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs PIT

I’m fully aware that Julio hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, and I fully don’t care. Jones is leading the league in yards, averaging 125 yards/game this season and has a fantastic match-up and the hottest QB in the game throwing him the ball (see gush session above). Pittsburgh has allowed the second most yards to opposing wideouts this season, and the third most touchdowns. Stack Julio with Ryan, sit back, and dominate your line-ups this week. Julio is worth taking at the first round turn all week.

Upside Target: Alshon Jeffery (PHI) vs MIN

Alshon had a great return to NFL action in Week 4; catching 8 of his 9 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. Jeffery proved to be an essential piece of the Eagles offense, opening up the outside for Wentz and giving him a legitimate deep ball threat (13.1 yards/target) to offset Agholor and whatever running back happens to be in the game at any given time. Jeffery faces off against the Vikings defense in Week 5, which isn’t as scary as it sounds: they’ve given up the 8th most fantasy points and the 6th most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Jeffery is likely to sneak into the 4th and 5th rounds, making him a huge value for you this week; get him cheap while you can.

Do Not DRAFT: Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) vs CAR

OBJ has been extremely average this season. He’s caught less than 100 yards in two of four weeks, despite being targeted at least 9 times per game. It’s tough to decide what’s more concerning: Beckham Jr’s zero touchdowns or his inability to be a factor at all down the field. His season high yards/reception is 12.8 (Week 2 vs Dallas) and averaged just 8.6 yards/reception in Week 4 vs a weak New Orleans secondary. This doesn’t seem to be the week for a break through, either: the Panthers have allowed just 2 passing touchdowns this season. You’re probably going to have to spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on this flashy name, a gamble that’s not likely to pay off for you.

Last week I helped you avoid Wilson and Drake and guided you to upside glory with Gio Bernard and Phillip Rivers. I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats. If you’re not familiar with DRAFT … Continue reading DFS Week 5: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

DFS Week 4: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid

Last week I gave you all the upside you needed with Matt Ryan and Mike Evans. I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Drew Brees (NO) vs NYG

I usually refuse to draft quarterbacks before the 5th round of DRAFT; there’s generally too much value late to justify anything earlier. Brees, however, has been going off the board consistently in the 4th round of my drafts this week-and I’m very okay with that. Brees is currently leading the NFL is completion (104) and completion percentage (80.6%), he’s 3rd in passing yards, and has thrown 8 touchdowns and zero interceptions through the first 3 weeks. He’s thrown for more than 350 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 of those games. The Giants have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season-and that’s against Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, and Deshaun Watson. This all adds up to another big week for Brees; making him worth a 4th round pick each and every draft this week.

High Upside: Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs SF

We intentionally took a week off from Rivers against a tough Rams defense but now it’s time to go back to the well (or should I say river….). In his first two weeks of the season, Rivers completed 57 of his 88 attempts for 680 yards, 6 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. Now he squares up against the 49ers who have allowed the 3rd most touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks (8) and the 5th most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (905) threw the first two weeks. The San Francisco defense is yet to record an interception. Rivers is the 5th round target I’m most comfortable taking, and he’s been available every time for me this week.

Do Not DRAFT: Russell Wilson (SEA) vs ARI

It sounds easy doesn’t it: the iconic Russell Wilson vs a dismal Cardinals defense? It’s too good to be true. Arizona has allowed the 10th least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, despite facing off against Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and Alex Smith. Those 3 quarterbacks have combined for just 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions combined against Arizona. Wilson isn’t the quarterback we’ve come to rely on either. The current QB16 has yet to throw for more than 300 yards this season and has thrown for less than 250 yards twice. Wilson, however, has always been able to make up for his passing stats with his legs. That’s not the case so far this year: he’s rushed just 7 times for 21 yards and no touchdowns. Wilson is too far off from a top 6 QB for you to even think about drafting him this week.

Running Back

Favorite Play: Saquon Barkley (NYG) vs NO

Disclaimer: Kamara is, once again, the top pick at running back and overall this week. I, however, refuse to write about the same guy over and over again so it’s time to talk Barkley (my RB2 overall this week). Barkley is currently RB4 in PPR formats; he’s rushed for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns in Weeks 1-3. What’s more enticing, though, is his 21 receptions (on 27 targets) for 137 yards. The Saints have shut down opposing running backs so far this season, but they’ve faced: Peyton Barber (RB57), Carlos Hyde (RB10), and the combo of Tevin Coleman (RB18) and Ito Smith (RB60). The Saints will be without CB Patrick Robinson; who seemed to be one of the few players able to slow the barrage against the worst passing defense in the league. Look for Barkley to benefit from a stretched field.

Upside Target: Gio Bernard (CIN) vs ATL

Running backs are going quick this week: on waiver wires, in trades, and especially on DRAFT. If you don’t grab 2 top guys in the first 3 rounds you’ll be digging through potential upside while that clock slowly ticks away and drives you in panic mode. Take a deep breath and take Gio. Bernard came out strong in his first start of the season: rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts (5.1 yards per carry). Bernard also showed his dual threat upside: catching 5 of 9 targets for 25 yards. Atlanta has given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks; in large part because they’ve allowed 8 more receptions to opposing running backs than any of defense through Week 3. They’ve allowed 36 receptions and 255 yards-leaving a lot of upside for Gio to capitalize on.

Do Not DRAFT: Kenyan Drake (MIA) vs NE

The upside is there, the match-up is there, and maybe the coaching will be there….maybe. I want to draft Drake, I also want to play him in every season-long league I have him in. I just can’t do it, though, and you shouldn’t either. Although the Pats have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, they’ve allowed just 1 touchdown in the first 3 weeks. They’ve also allowed just 154 passing yards, and 0 touchdowns to them. Drake saw just 7 total touches in Week 3, and the Dolphins had just 39 offensive plays. Head coach Adam Gase seems more interested in running college style end arounds and wide receiver touchdown passes than feeding his incredibly talented back.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Michael Thomas (NO) vs NYG

You could make a case for drafting another wideout first this week, but you’d be wrong. Thomas is 3rd in the league in targets (40), 1st in receptions (38), first in catch rate (95%), 1st in receiving yards (398) and 3rd in touchdowns (3). There’s 4 tempting running backs that very well may get taken over Thomas in your drafts (Kamara, Barkley, Zeke, and Gordon) which means you have a great opportunity to snag a huge value when picking at the turn; don’t overthink this one: Thomas is your top pick again this week.

Upside Target: Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs OAK

Landry has been eating the first three weeks: he has 20 receptions on 37 targets for 278 yards. Now, Landry has a new quarterback (Baker Mayfield) who’s much more apt to stretch the field and get the ball to Landry in the endzone. This week Landry pulls the Raiders defense, who has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. They’ve allowed 612 yards on 36 receptions and 5 touchdowns-leaving a lot of upside for the top wideout in an offense that’s been recently recharged and had an extra 3 days of rest; coming off a Week 3 Thursday Night Football match-up.

Do Not DRAFT: Deandre Hopkins (HOU) vs IND

Hopkins isn’t a WR1 through Week 3. In fact, Hopkins hasn’t even been the WR1 on his own team since Fuller returned in Week 2. That doesn’t bode well for this popular name when combined with a match-up against the Colts, who have allowed the 2nd least fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far this season. On average, the Colts are allowing just 91 yards and less than a touchdown to opposing wideouts combined per week. Hopkins is a big name, and a big mistake on DRAFT in Week 4.

Last week I gave you all the upside you needed with Matt Ryan and Mike Evans. I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats. If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to … Continue reading DFS Week 4: DRAFT Targets & Players to Avoid