Giant Confusion; The Numbers Don’t Add Up Without Eli

Recently, I’ve recognized a confusing trend. Fantasy analysts are overwhelmingly and appropriately giving love to Odell Beckham Jr, Saquon Barkley, and Evan Engram. Even though they are giving this love to the offensive players, they are still ranking Eli Manning as middling or failing. Even our own Top 2 consensus rankings have OBJ at WR2, Saquon at RB5, Engram at TE4, but Eli Manning is QB23. I conclude that the rankings of these players do not add up OR the fantasy community has the non-QB skilled positions ranked too high.

For a little background to how I came to that conclusion, let’s consider 2017 results.

RB	WR	TE	QB
Hunt (RB4)	Tyreek (WR9)	Kelce (TE1)	Smith (QB4)
Gordon (RB5)	Allen (WR3)	Henry/Gates (TE5)	Rivers (QB8)

As you can see, players who are ranked high at their position equate positively for the QB. I can instantly hear your arguments against my, thus far, simplistic reasoning. Allow me to elaborate a bit.

Projecting Eli’s Floor

I’m not claiming that Eli will be the QB4 like Alex Smith in 2017. We are hard pressed to find a game-manager QB like Smith. He runs more than Eli and he is far more efficient in his interception rate (Last 5 years, Smith has a 1.4% to Eli’s 2.9%). To accomodate these differences, let’s take Alex Smith’s legs and efficiency last season and match them to Eli’s by adding 8 more interceptions while removing 330 yards rushing (subtract 49 points). Alex Smith is still the QB14. We can use this number to project a potential floor.

Projecting Eli’s Ceiling

I think the best argument for how Eli Manning should be ranked based on the projected stats of his receiving targets can be made by looking at Philip Rivers’ results in 2017. Their team makeup of 2017 is almost identical to the projections for the Giants in 2018. They had a clear #1 receiver in Keenan Allen just like the Giants have with Odell Beckham Jr., a clear bell-cow RB in Melvin Gordon (just like Saquon Barkley), and a solid TE combo in Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates who equaled the output of Evan Engram in 2017. Similar to Eli Manning, Rivers makes a lot of passing attempts and throws a lot of interceptions. Also like Eli, Philip Rivers simply does not run the ball.

Using these stats and projections, I believe the ceiling for Eli Manning is QB8 in 2018.

The Missing Game

In Week 13, the soon-to-be-ousted Ben McAdoo benched Eli Manning in favor of Geno Smith. The game was against a subpar Oakland Raiders defense. Granting Eli Manning a modest game of 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, he would have finished 2017 as the QB16. That’s right, with no running game, a bunch of injured receivers, and a rookie Tight End, Eli Manning would have finished the season 16th overall instead of 23rd.

Final Thoughts

If there are any naysayers or Giants haters who simply cannot project Eli better than a QB20, then those friendly analysts will need to drop their projections of OBJ, Barkley, or Engram. It is quite difficult to have a successful result at all 3 positions without having a successful QB. The addition of Saquon Barkley will take some of those 2017 pass attempts away, but it will also open the field for the receivers. I anticipate that this will improve Eli’s efficiency.

For the record, I have Eli at QB16. I have OBJ and Barkley right around their ADP according to Fantasy Football Calculator, but I have Engram much lower (TE9 as of today). With the addition of Barkley, the health of OBJ, and the skill of Sterling Shepherd, I don’t believe there are enough targets to make Engram as valuable as he was in 2017 when he was the only healthy target left on the team.

There is a potential 2018 where Eli Manning could finish the season as a top 10 QB in fantasy. If other analysts want to keep projecting OBJ, Barkley, and Engram at their current rankings, then they better take a long hard look at their QB rankings and adjust accordingly.

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We’re Looking at the Panthers All Wrong

I didn’t want to say any of this. I like how things currently are. What if I say it and people listen? My sneakiness will go away. No, I must. It must be said:

“Fantasy Community! You have it all wrong on Devin Funchess and DJ Moore. You are also wrong on Christian McCaffrey and CJ Anderson.”

D.J. Has Moore to Offer than Funchess

Let’s consider the easy one. Devin Funchess is currently ranked as the 35th Wide Receiver coming off the board in PPR according to Fantasy Football Calculator. DJ Moore sits two rounds later as the 44th Wide Receiver to be drafted. Once we get into the preseason and the evidence becomes clear, those ADP positions will reverse and then possibly grow farther apart. For my sake, I hope not. I like Moore’s current ADP.

Name	Height	Weight	40yd Dash	Vertical
Funchess	6’5″	235	4.7	38.5
Moore	6’0″	210	4.42	39.5
OBJ*	5’11”	198	4.43	38.5

*OBJ stats added for reference of a known commodity, not for actual comparison…..yet.

You’re reading that correctly. Despite having a 5″ disadvantage in height, DJ Moore can still jump a full inch higher than Devin Funchess. Moore is also faster. Funchess was not drafted to be the lead Wide Receiver. At the time, he was perpetually the second fiddle to Kelvin Benjamin and only earned the boost after the Panthers traded Benjamin to the Bills. Funchess is not elusive; he posted an average 2.2 yds after the catch. In addition, he only caught 56% of his targets. In 2016, his catch rate was below 40%.

On the other hand, DJ Moore was drafted in the first round. He will likely line up in the slot. As we saw in 2017, Cam Newton was a lot more efficient on the shorter passes; he turned Christian McCaffrey into fantasy beast in PPR. The Panthers did not improve their offensive line, which means Cam is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly or run. DJ Moore will be there for those short passes. Reviewing DJ Moore’s college tape, you can see that the kid breaks tackles. He sees the ball into his hands, he breaks tackles, and he has the vision to get the ball down the field.

In best ball formats, Funchess might be a good grab. Because of his size, he will be easy to find in the end zone and 2017 taught us that he will have some blow-up games. But, my redraft and dynasty teams will be loaded with DJ Moore in the 10th round. I’ll even reach for him in the 9th. I’ll be right back, I have to go update my rankings.

CMC vs CJ

Please do not misunderstand me. I believe Christian McCaffrey is very talented and he will be a great add to your fantasy team, especially in PPR formats. He is being drafted as the 12th RB off the board according to the Fantasy Football Calculator.

Even though CMC was in 30% more of the offensive snaps compared to Jonathan Stewart, Stewart had more touches (206) than McCaffery (197). Those 206 touches aren’t just going to go to CMC. Instead, they will be going to CJ Anderson who is the 39th RB coming off the board a full six rounds later than CMC in the middle of the 8th round. If anything, the touch spread could widen since CJ Anderson has more fuel in the tank when compared to Jonathan Stewart.

CJ Anderson was signed to a one year contract. He is coming off of a year that saw him play all 16 games. He rushed 245 times for 1007 yards and 3 touchdowns. As we all recall, the Broncos were not very good in 2017, offensively. Let’s give CJA 3 more touchdowns and you’re looking at the RB12 in 2017. This is in the realm of possibility since Jonathan Stewart scored 7 times in 2017 and is less efficient than CJ Anderson.

Speaking of inefficiency, Christian McCaffrey was not very good when running the ball. He was ranked 37th in 2017 with a less than stellar 3.7 yards per carry. While CJ Anderson’s 2017 YPC wasn’t a lot better (4.1), he was on a team with a worse offensive line.  Defenses didn’t have to worry about the passing game in Denver because the QBs were awful. In Carolina, he is on a team that has a defined passing game with a brand new spark in DJ Moore. Carolina has a passing and rushing QB in Cam Newton that defenses will be forced to watch (our very own Matt Hicks, @top2Matt, has Newton ranked as his #1 dynasty quarterback) . This will allow CJ Anderson to shine in the rushing downs while CMC continues his dominance in the passing game.

I would love to have Christian McCaffrey on my fantasy team in PPR leagues. At his current ADP, that probably won’t happen very often. However, when a running back who will have 240+ rushing attempts is still on the board in the 8th round, sign me up every single time.

Final word: In Dynasty startups, CJ Anderson is currently going in the 12th round. With a one year contract, I believe this is fair. I will still be drafting him there, if not sooner. He is 28 years old and might have a couple more years of decent production left in him after this season. It just depends on where he lands, which qualifies the 12th round pick.

The Case for Dalvin Cook as a Top 5 Running Back

According to the Fantasy Football Calculator, Dalvin Cook is the 10th Running Back off the board in both PPR and Standard. He only rises to 9th when it becomes Dynasty. These ADPs are currently my best friend because the further we get into the preseason, the more I realize that Dalvin Cook should be the 5th Running Back off the board in all formats. It means that no matter what slot I pick from in the first round, I will be able to draft one of my top 5 RBs. Dalvin Cook should be drafted in before Melvin Gordon, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, and Alvin Kamara (against the strong opinions of the @Top2Pod hosts – please give their RB rankings episode a listen!).

College Pedigree Worth Considering

Dalvin Cook holds the record at Florida State for the most career rushing yards (4,464) while only playing in three seasons. He also holds the school record for the most touchdowns (46). Two of his seasons sit on top of the single season rushing yards list for the school (1,765 in 2016 and 1,691 in 2015). Florida State plays in the ACC. The same conference as Pittsburgh (37), NC State (29), Louisville (18), Clemson (10), and Boston College (1). The number in parenthesis is the overall defensive rankings for the 2016 season in the NCAA. In other words, he was facing good defenses in that record breaking year.

Cousins Targets his Running Backs

Kirk Cousins has the ability to provide PPR value to his Running Backs. The only thing that has held this statistic from being even more impressive is the health of Chris Thompson. In 10 games (2017), Chris Thompson caught 39 passes for 510 yards and 4 touchdowns. If he had played 16 games while performing at the same level, that would have been 816 yards and 6 touchdowns. A counter argument might be, “Chris Thompson doesn’t play for Minnesota.” The answer to that argument would be, “Dalvin Cook plays the passing downs.” In the three full games before his injury (week 4), he played in 70% of snaps. Jerick McKinnon was used in the passing game after Cook’s injury, but McKinnon left town to be the 49ers lead back. Latavius Murray is not a passing down back. I’ll tell you a secret, he’s not as good as Dalvin Cook, either.

Injury Argument Shouldn’t Apply If You Have Watson Ranked Top 5

I’ve participated in several mock drafts with real people (please see the awesome Mock Draft Series Articles 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). In those drafts, people are drafting DeShaun Watson incredibly high for the QB position. The similarities between Watson and Cook are oddly similar: Incredible talent out of college, was not the top pick in their respective position, lit up the stat sheets, played a truncated rookie season due to an ACL tear. Is the ACL tear really going to be part of the argument against Dalvin Cook while it is being completely ignored for DeShaun Watson? I certainly hope not.

Comparing Other Top Running Back Options

Player	Avg Rush-YPG	Avg Rec-YPG	Avg TDs	Avg Total YPG
Cook	101	26	0.6	126
Kamara	45.5	51.6	0.8	97
Fournette	80	23.2	0.6	103.2
Melvin	69.1	29.8	0.75	98.9
Hunt	69	28.4	0.7	97.4
Barkley	NA	NA	NA	NA

The stats tell similar tales. Some were used more in the red zone, but not by much. Some were used more in the passing game, but not by much (exception is Kamara, but his rushing yards bring the comparison back to reality). Since the stats are so close, here is my reasoning why I would draft Dalvin Cook over the 5 RBs immediately ahead of him in ADP.

Leonard Fournette – Cook’s stats are better. Fournette’s ankle issues will never go away. I believe it is safe to use the term “injury prone.” Fournette will miss games. Cook is safer.

Melvin Gordon – The stats are close. But despite Melvin Gordon’s relatively young age, his left knee has been problematic on multiple occassions: Torn meniscus in 2015 and sprained PCL in 2016, missing time both seasons. I like Melvin Gordon. If it weren’t for his injury history, this article could have been about him. But, I like Cook’s opportunity a lot more and I feel he is safer.

Kareem Hunt – Remember when Kareem Hunt disappeared for weeks on end? They have a new offensive coordinator, a rookie QB, a returning Spencer Ware…..and the same Andy Reid that made Hunt disappear for weeks on end. I’d still draft Hunt, but he is the second lowest in my personal rankings within this group.

Saquon Barkley – Saquon has skills and potential. I will not argue the higher ADP in Dynasty. In fact, I just barely disagree with it. But the Giants STUNK last season. I only see them stinking slightly less this year. Plus, Barkley has never touched an NFL ball. Unproven and bad team = lower ranking for me.

Alvin Kamara – Kamara has never been utilized as a feature back, not in college and not in the NFL. He might get a boost from Ingram missing the first 4 games, but we don’t have any evidence that he will be able to handle the workload. Once Ingram returns, it will go back to a timeshare. Those 2017 stats were magical and possibly not repeatable. If somebody is arguing for Kamara over Cook in PPR, they will receive a head nod from me even while I maintain my disagreement. I’m going to go with my gut.

My Rankings

Player	Standard	PPR	Dynasty
Cook	5	5	5
Kamara	6	6	7
Barkley	7	7	6
Fournette	8	10	10
Melvin	9	8	8
Hunt	10	9	9

Projecting Rookie QB Playing Time

One of my favorite aspects of Fantasy Football is speculation. This past April, 13 quarterbacks were drafted in the NFL Draft. Anywhere from 5 to 7 of them have a legitimate chance to see snaps as a starter in 2018. The question is, “Are they worth a stash in redraft leagues?” Using a formula of my own creation, let’s find out.

The Six Who We Won’t See Starting in 2018

Let’s take a quick moment to mention the six quarterbacks who have an almost 0% chance to take starting snaps this season, whether it’s because of the current starter or the depth chart. The following should not be drafted in any format:

Mike White – 0% chance to see starting snaps – Currently third on the Cowboys depth chart. Dak is the starter, case closed.

Luke Falk – 1% – Currently third on the Titans depth chart. Mariota is the starter. If injured, it will go to Blaine Gabbart.

Tanner Lee – 1% – Current third on the Jags depth chart behind Bortles and Kessler. They’re a running team, anyway.

Danny Etling – 2% – Currently third on the Patriots depth chart. Although, Brady is old and Hoyer’s health is always a question mark.

Alex McGough – 0% – Currently third on the Seahawks depth chart. Wilson is the starter, case closed.

Logan Woodside – 0% – Currently fourth on the Bengals depth chart. Practice squad, here we come!

Could Start, But Highly Unlikely

The next set have a slight chance to start, but should not be drafted in any redraft format:

Kyle Lauletta: 5%

Laulette is Currently third on the Giants depth chart behind Eli Manning and Davis Webb. We must consider this: Under a different head coach, Eli was sat in favor of Geno Smith. Eli no longer has the consecutive start streak in play. The fantasy football universe is currently trembling with the excitement of a returning OBJ and the (different article topic) drafted-too-high Saquon Barkley. Let’s face it, the Giants stunk last year. It’s quite possible that they will stink only slightly less this year. Should we get to the end of the season and the Giants are not in contention for a playoff spot, they might just give Kyle Lauletta a try. The back half of their schedule is pretty winnable.

Mason Rudolph: 3%

He’s is third on the Steelers depth chart behind Big Ben and Landry Jones. The Steelers are a perennial playoff contender and are playing in a weak division (AFC North). Mason Rudolph has some hype but, unless an injury occurs to Big Ben AND the Steelers are out of playoff contention, Mason Rudolph won’t see the field this year.

Might or Will See Starting Snaps This Season

Lamar Jackson: 55%

Jackson sits behind Joe Flacco on the depth chart. Flacco will be the starter in 2018. However, the Ravens start their season with four out of the first 5 games completely winnable (Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Browns). They have a fresh set of starting Wide Receivers (Crabtree, Snead, John Brown, and a lot of rookies). There should be hope for the Ravens. Despite his Super Bowl ring, I am not a fan of Joe Flacco. Not in reality and CERTAINLY not for fantasy. If they get through week five with a losing record, I believe they will grant the starting job to Jackson. Week five at the earliest, although it’s still in the realm of possibility that we will not see Lamar Jackson until 2019. Draftable in redraft leagues? Resist the desire, hype-sters and homers, no way! Not in Superflex or 2QB, either.

Baker Mayfield: 60%

Baker is second on the depth chart behind Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod will be the starting QB in Cleveland in 2018. Between draft picks and free agency, Cleveland has added more than half a roster in the last two years (29 players). Tyrod led the, arguably, worse 2017 Buffalo Bills to the playoffs. My rose colored glasses and love for an underdog has Cleveland finishing with a 9-7 record. But, when I take those glasses off I see them eliminated from the playoffs by Week 15 at the latest. With weeks 16 & 17 winnable (Bengals and Ravens), they might put Mayfield in to see what they have for 2019. Earliest – Week 12. Latest – 2019. Draftable in redraft leagues? No and you can ignore him in Superflex and 2QB, too.

Josh Allen: 90%

Allen is second on the depth chart behind AJ McCarron. Third if you believe the horse pucky coming from the Bills camp that Nathan Peterman could be the starter. I don’t believe a word of it and neither should you. Let’s face it, the Bills are going to stink in 2018. Part of me thinks that Josh Allen could take the starting spot early. The other part of me thinks, “Why would they frustrate a rookie QB and possibly destroy his confidence?”  Earliest – Week 1 by winning the starting role. Latest – Week 9. Do not draft him in any style of redraft…..even if he wins the starting role in week 1.

Sam Darnold: 90%

Darnold is third on the depth chart behind Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater. I can repeat almost everything I said the paragraph above. The difference? I think the Jets are slightly better and will win at least 4 games in 2018.  Earliest – Week 1 the veteran McCown on the sideline could be a booster. Latest – 2019. Unfortunately, the last three games on the schedule are against the Texans, the Packers, and the Patriots. That is not an ideal litmus test for a rookie QB. If he wins the starting role by the time your draft roles around, take a shot! In 1QB leagues, I recommend a last round flyer. In SF and 2QB, do it LATE. He’s a rookie on a bad team and likely won’t be in your starting lineup, but there’s potential.

Josh Rosen: 100%

Finally, Rosen is second on the depth chart behind Sam Bradford. Bradford hasn’t played a full season since 2012, 80 games out of a possible 128. Even if he stays healthy, he’s not that good. Take away his stellar 2016 completion rate and he’s barely above 60% for his career. His career Yards per Completion is on par with Nathan Peterman at 10.6 (I’m being hyperbolic with the Peterman comparison, but 10.6 is really low). Josh Rosen will see starting snaps. Earliest – Week 1 because Bradford won’t win the starting job or will get injured in the preseason. Latest – Week 3 because that’s the high end of my confidence in Bradford staying healthy. Draftable in redraft leagues? Yes, but do it late. After all, he’s still a rookie.

Aaron Jones is Good, Jamaal Williams is Valuable

Jones is a Good Player, but not as Good as You Think

The current trend, using the #MockDraftSeries and expert opinions as a resource, says that Aaron Jones (RB33 via Fantasy Football Calculator ADP) should be drafted before Jamaal Williams (RB38). In the most recent mock draft in the Mock Draft Series, Aaron Jones was drafted four rounds ahead of Jamaal Williams (Dynasty/PPR/SF).

I’m showing my hand early, but I can’t stop myself from saying immediately, “Aaron Jones was NOT used in the passing game last season.” Nine receptions for 22 yards is not a PPR target.

Before I go any further, I must point out that Aaron Jones is a fabulous player and will definitely have fantasy value in the 2018 season. This article is not a knock on him or his talent. It is a recommendation based on statistics.

He’s Not the Favorite Back in Green Bay

Statistics show us how the Packers used their backfield. When Ty Montgomery was healthy, Jamaal Williams was the backup. In Week 1, Aaron Jones didn’t even dress for the game. Jamaal Williams was unable to take over the backfield when Ty Montgomery injured his ribs because in the same game (Week 4, against the Chicago Bears), Jamaal Williams injured his knee. The team feared for his seasonal health. The MRI showed no ligament damage, but they kept him on a short leash for several weeks to allow the knee to heal. This double injury allowed Aaron Jones to show his talent. In Week 9, all three running backs were healthy again and the trend returned to normal. Ty Montgomery was the lead, Jamaal Williams was the backup. Week 11, Ty Montgomery moves to Injured Reserve and Aaron Jones is injured. Jamaal Williams takes the lead role.

While not as “explosive” as Aaron Jones, one major difference must be considered: When Aaron Jones was being explosive, Aaron Rodgers was still playing. When Jamaal Williams was given his opportunity to lead, defenses were stacking the box because they knew Brett Hundley wasn’t a threat. Regardless of quarterback and after Ty Montgomery was moved to IR, Jamaal Williams was the lead back even when Aaron Jones was healthy from Week 11 until the end of the season.

Statistic	Total Player Stats Touches-Yards-TDs	Notes
Both Players Healthy	AJ 20-90-0 JW 102-451-3	Weeks 1-3, 9-10, 14-17
Aaron Rodgers Starting	AJ 50-269-2 JW 22-78-0	AJ not on injury report JW injured Weeks 4-7
Brett Hundley Starting	AJ 39-195-2 JW 156-748-6	AJ Injured Weeks 11-13 JW Injured Week 7

Both back are a similar build (JW-6’0″ 201lbs – AJ-5’10” 207lbs). Neither gets an edge there.

Opportunity Does Not Await

Finally, we must return to a point made in the beginning of the article: Aaron Jones is not used in the passing game. If Ty Montgomery is healthy, that passing down role is his without question. Next in line is Jamaal Williams. JW was 25-262-2 in receiving. AJ was 9-22-0. One was used heavily and excelled while the other was barely used and inefficient. The difference speaks volumes.

Please do not ignore Aaron Jones. He is a valuable player to have on your fantasy roster. But while my fellow fantasy drafters are grabbing Aaron Jones, I’ll wait a couple of rounds and comfortably draft Jamaal Williams at the better value. He will have the larger role which translates to better fantasy results, especially in PPR leagues.

Who’s the Odd Man Out in Cleveland?

A Busy Off Season for the Browns Front Office

Another draft has come and gone. Fans of the Cleveland Browns are now going through their annual months of hope before the season actually begins and those fans are thrust into the arena of disappointment. Will this year be any different? It certainly could be! The Browns offense is filled with talent and depth which was unseen in recent years.

They have an adequate Quarterback in Tyrod Taylor and some hope for the future in Baker Mayfield. In the off season, they signed Wide Receiver Jarvis Landry to a huge deal. They still have Josh Gordon at Wide Receiver and he has managed to stay out of trouble lately. Add to the receiver corp Corey Coleman and two receivers who had some fantasy attention last season in Ricardo Louis and Rashard Higgins. On top of that, they added Antonio Callaway in the draft as well as four other receivers.

You read that correctly: Between the draft and undrafted free agents, The Cleveland Browns added 5 rookie receivers. I’m not a dunce, I’m aware that most of those will be cut before the season starts. We’re not finished, yet! We haven’t even talked about Running Backs or Tight Ends. Carlos Hyde was signed to a pretty hefty contract in the off season after Cleveland parted ways with Isaiah Crowell. In the draft, they spent some draft capital on signing Nick Chubb. Finally, they still have the known PPR monster, Duke Johnson. The same Duke Johnson who led the Browns in receiving in 2017. They also have David Njoku as their Tight End.

The kindest season projections for the Browns say that they will have a 7-9 season. Even if they finish with a 10-6 record, some members of this immensely talented squad will be underutilized and will, ultimately, be a fantasy disappointment. Who will be the odd man out in the Cleveland offense?

Few Players are Safe

In order to decide who the fantasy odd man out will be, I must thin the offensive herd. Let’s eliminate the easy ones first: Jarvis Landry and Carlos Hyde are both being paid too much for them to be underutilized; they will also be impossible to cut. Josh Gordon is too talented to be ignored. I know it’s been 5 years, but one doesn’t become the #1 receiver in fantasy football as a fluke. He is THAT GOOD. Nick Chubb is one of the most talented running backs in the 2018 draft class. He will earn attention. We can also eliminate the nameless receivers signed as UDFA mentioned above. David Njoku can also be eliminated from “odd man out” consideration because he is the tight end.

Some should just be Avoided

By my definition, the odd man out is a player that has had some level of fantasy relevance in the past or have a role for the future. With that in mind, we can quickly eliminate the players who, by default, are not in the position to add fantasy value this season in any circumstance: Corey Coleman and Antonio Callaway. Cleveland is already shopping Corey Coleman for a trade. He has never been fantasy relevant. He will go undrafted unless it’s the deepest of leagues. Antonio Callaway will, at best, be the 5th option on passing downs. As the highest drafted rookie WR on their team, he will likely hold onto his spot. But, how often will Tyrod (or possibly Mayfield) look his way when the QB has so many other options?

The Result: Dodge Duke

Through the process of elimination, we can sadly conclude that Duke Johnson will be the odd man out in Cleveland.

Duke Johnson was, essentially, a slot receiver last year. Jarvis Landry is one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. He led the NFL with 112 receptions last season and averaged 10+ targets per game. I know, it’s not Cutler nor Tannehill throwing the ball. Instead it’s Tyrod Taylor. The same Tyrod that loved throwing to the more frequently injured (and arguably less talented) Jordan Matthews in the slot. They won’t need Duke to fill in that role, anymore. The targets that used to go to Duke will now go directly to Jarvis Landry. You don’t buy a Ford F250 unless you plan on hauling the cargo (Jarvis Landry is the F250 in this metaphor).

Carlos Hyde’s stat sheet shows that he is used in the receiving game. Out of all running backs in 2017, he had the 5th most targets at 88 (only 5 less than Duke). His career totals tell the same story. He will take a chunk of those targets previously thrown to Duke. Nick Chubb will have his share of running plays while Josh Gordon and David Njoku will consume the remaining majority of targets in the receiving game. What is left for Duke Johnson? Not enough to make him fantasy relevant.

Cleveland will have five major players in the 2018 fantasy football season: Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, Carlos Hyde, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku.

There are not enough targets remaining to make Duke Johnson fantasy relevant in 2018. He will be the odd man out in the Cleveland offense.